Saturday, August 29, 2009

Currency trading Euro moved lower Aug 29

The euro moved lower vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.4320 level and was capped around the $1.4390 level. Data released in the U.S. today saw July personal income growth at 0.0%, up from June’s revised -1.1% decline. July personal spending printed at +0.2%, down from June’s revised print of +0.6%. Also, the July personal consumption expenditures deflator was off 0.8% y/y, worse than the 0.4% June reading. At the core level, the July core rate up 0.1% m/m and 1.4% y/y. Finally, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment indicator came in at 65.7, above the prior mid-August reading of 63.2 but below the July reading of 66.0. The common currency failed to sustain its gains through the North American session as U.S. equity prices retreated in the session. St. Louis Fed President Bullard was on the wires earlier and dovishly said the Fed needs to see much more “convincing” economic data before contemplating an increase in rates. In eurozone news, the European Commissions’s economic sentiment indicator improved to 80.6 from a reading of 76 in July. Many economists believe the eurozone economy will expand around 0.5% q/q in the third quarter. Bundesbank reported German banks expect a modest increase in lending volumes in the second half of 2009 and in 2010, corroborating the central bank’s assessment there is no credit crunch in the eurozone’s largest economy. German Chancellor Merkel today reported the German economy might contract 5% or 6% in 2009. Euro bids are cited around the US$ 1.3900 figure.
¥/ CNY
The yen appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the ¥93.40 level and was capped around the ¥94.05 level. All eyes are focused on this weekend’s general election in Japan where the long-incumbent Liberal Democratic Party looks poised to lose its stronghold on power to the Democratic Party of Japan. Some Japan-watchers believe this will result in increased Japanese government bond issuance to finance the expected increase in public works spending. It is unclear how a DPJ victory would impact the yen. Japan is expected to battle deflation through early 2012 and will need all the help it can get from its slumping export sector through a weaker yen. Many data were released in Japan overnight. First, the July unemployment rate rose to 5.7% from 5.4 in June, the largest print since World War II and significantly above expectations. Second, the July nationwide consumer price index was off 0.3% m/m and off 2.2% y/y with the core rate off 0.2% m/m and 2.2% y/y. The Tokyo-area August consumer price index was up +0.3% m/m and +0.1% y/y with the core component flat m/m and off 0.2% y/y. Other data saw July all household spending off 2.0% y/y while the trade surplus for the first ten days in August printed at ¥48.08 billion, off 69.2% y/y. The Nikkei 225 stock index climbed 0.57% to close at ¥10,534.14. U.S. dollar offers are cited around the ¥104.15 level. The euro moved higher vis-à-vis the yen as the single currency tested offers around the ¥135.00 figure and was supported around the ¥134.00 figure. The British pound moved higher vis-à-vis the yen as sterling tested offers around the ¥153.60 level while the Swiss franc moved higher vis-à-vis the yen and tested offers around the ¥88.90 level. In Chinese news, the U.S. dollar lost ground vis-à-vis the Chinese yuan as the greenback closed at CNY 6.8256 in the over-the-counter market, down from CNY 6.8273. Chinese Premier Wen this week said the markets need to avoid being “blindly optimistic” about the global economic recovery and added China must maintain its “moderately loose” monetary policy and “active” fiscal policy. PBoC has reported it will ensure “reasonable and ample” liquidity.




Technical Outlook at 1230 GMT (EDT + 0400)

(Bid Price) (Today’s Intraday Range)

EUR/ USD 1.4371 1.4388, 1.4324
USD/ JPY 93.60 94.06, 93.40
GBP/ USD 1.6305 1.6380, 1.6260
USD/ CHF 1.0561 1.0617, 1.0538
AUD/USD 0.8443 0.8469, 0.8375
USD/CAD 1.0831 1.0893, 1.0790
NZD/USD 0.6867 0.6892, 0.6840
EUR/ JPY 134.47 135.00, 134.03
EUR/ GBP 0.8813 0.8829, 0.8774
GBP/ JPY 152.54 153.61, 151.96
CHF/ JPY 88.58 88.91, 88.20


Support Resistance Support Resistance

EUR/ USD USD/ JPY


L1. 1.3780 1.4295 90.05 98.85
L2. 1.3605 1.4630 88.60 101.65
L3. 1.3400 1.5105 87.10 105.05

GBP/ USD USD/ CHF

L1. 1.5845 1.6495 1.0510 1.1165
L2. 1.5690 1.6740 1.0275 1.1270
L3. 1.5440 1.6830 0.9750 1.1555

AUD/ USD USD/ CAD

L1. 0.7715 0.8250 1.1340 1.1920
L2. 0.7440 0.8555 1.1130 1.2190
L3. 0.7165 0.9050 1.0725 1.2520


NZD/ USD EUR/ JPY

L1. 0.6190 0.6665 125.65 134.50
L2. 0.6020 0.6945 121.70 139.80
L3. 0.5655 0.7760 118.50 141.50

EUR/ GBP EUR/ CHF

L1. 0.8320 0.8770 1.4905 1.5380
L2. 0.7870 0.9080 1.4670 1.5580
L3. 0.7590 0.9355 1.4420 1.5880

GBP/ JPY CHF/ JPY

L1. 146.10 157.75 81.55 93.55
L2. 142.05 160.30 79.20 97.90
L3. 135.70 167.30 75.40 105.05




SCHEDULE


Wednesday, 26 August 2009
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)

0030 Australia Q2 construction work done
0100 Australia August DEWR skilled vacancies (-1.7% m/m)
0500 Japan August small business confidence (41.1)
0800 Germany August Ifo business sentiment, expectations (90.4)
0800 Germany August Ifo, business climate (87.3)
0800 Germany August Ifo, current assessment (84.3)
1100 US MBA mortgage applications (5.6%)
1230 US July durable goods orders (-2.5%)
1230 US July durable goods orders, ex-transportation (1.1%)
1400 US July new home sales (384,000)
1400 US July new home sales (11.0% m/m
1600 France July total jobseekers
1600 US Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Lockhart speaks
2245 NZ July trade balance

Thursday, 27 August 2009
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)

N/A Eurozone August Ifo business climate survey
N/A Germany August consumer price index (0.0% m/m)
N/A Germany August consumer price index (-0.5% y/y)
N/A Germany August CPI, harmonized (-0.1% m/m)
N/A Germany August CPI, harmonized (-0.7% y/y)
0000 Australia June leading index (-0.1%)
0130 Australia Q2 private capital expenditure (-8.9%)
0610 Germany September GfK consumer confidence survey (3.5)
0800 Italy August PMI, retail (45.6)
0800 France August PMI, retail (46.0)
0800 Germany August PMI, retail (49.8)
0800 Eurozone August PMI, retail (47.3)
0800 Eurozone July M3 money supply (3.5% y/y)
0830 UK Q2 total business investment (-7.6% q/q)
0830 UK Q2 total business investment (-9.7% y/y)
1000 UK CBI quarterly distributive trades (-17)
1230 US Q2 gross domestic product, annualized (-1.0%0
1230 US Q2 personal consumption expenditure, core (2.0% q/q)
1230 US Q2 gross domestic product price index (0.2%)
1230 US Weekly initial jobless claims (576,000)
1230 US Continuing jobless claims (6.241 million)
2100 US Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President Bullard speaks
2245 NZ July building permits (-9.5% m/m)
2301 UK August GfK consumer confidence (-25)
2315 Japan August PMI, manufacturing (50.4)
2330 Japan July jobless rate (5.4%)
2330 Japan July household spending (0.2% y/y)
2330 Japan August Tokyo-area consumer price index (-1.8% y/y)
2330 Japan August Tokyo-area CPI, ex-food, energy (-1.1% y/y)
2330 Japan July national consumer price index (-1.8% y/y)
2330 Japan July national CPI, ex-food, energy (-0.7% y/y)

Friday, 28 August 2009
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)

0300 NZ July M3 money supply (2.7% y/y)
0830 UK Q2 gross domestic product (-0.8% q/q)
0830 UK Q2 gross domestic product (-5.6% y/y)
0900 Italy July producer price index
0900 Eurozone August economic confidence (76.0)
0900 Eurozone August business climate indicator (-2.71)
0900 Eurozone August consumer confidence (-23)
0900 Eurozone August industrial confidence (-30)
0900 Eurozone August services confidence (-18)
0930 CH August KOF leading indicator (-0.99)
1230 US July personal income (-1.3%)
1230 US July personal spending (0.4%)
1230 US July CPE deflator (-0.4% y/y)
1230 US July CPE, core (0.2% m/m)
1230 US July PCE, core (1.5% y/y)
1230 Canada Q2 current account (-C$ 9.1 billion)
1230 Canada July industrial product prices (0.7% m/m)
1230 Canada July raw materials price index (6.2% m/m)
1400 US August University of Michigan consumer sentiment (63.2)


DISCLAIMER: GCI’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. GCI assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.



Friday, August 28, 2009

Swiss franc strengthens, british pound moves lower, and yen appreciates


The euro moved lower vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.4220 level and was capped around the $1.4280 level. U.S. equity markets were pinched lower as traders continue to speculate the Chinese government may try to slow its industrial sector, probably to the detriment of global growth. Richmond Fed President Lacker hawkishly said the Fed may not need to purchase the entire US$ 1.25 trillion in mortgage-backed securities it has been authorized to purchase by the end of the year. Data released in the U.S. today saw second quarter gross domestic product decline an annualized 1.0%, unchanged from the previous estimate, while the second quarter GDP price index fell to 0.0% from 0.2%. Additionally, core personal consumption expenditures were unchanged at 2.0%, matching forecasts. Other data released today saw weekly initial jobless claims fall to 570,000 from a revised 580,000 while continuing jobless claims printed at 6.133 million, down from 6.252 million. This week’s U.S. economic data have added to the perception that the U.S. economy has likely bottomed out, though some bears are quick to note that the impact from the pending commercial real estate crisis has not been fully discounted by markets. The Federal Reserve is seeking a delay in the disclosure of the identity of companies that received funds from its emergency lending programs. In eurozone news, GfK reported German September sentiment improved to 3.7 from 3.4 in August. Also, Germany’s inflation rose unexpectedly improved to 0% in August on a harmonized basis after declining an annualized 0.7% in July. Other data released today saw loan growth to private sector borrowers in the eurozone decelerate significantly, off 0.4% m/m. Additionally, the ECB reported its annual M3 money supply indicator grew 0.3% last month. ECB policymakers this week have been quite cautious in their assessments of the economy, noting it is unlikely they’ll move to unwind their monetary stimuli anytime soon. ECB rate-setters will next convene on 3 September and are unlikely to change monetary policy at that time. Euro bids are cited around the US$ 1.3900 figure.


¥/ CNY
The yen appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the ¥93.35 level and was capped around the ¥94.30 level. The yen strengthened across the board as traders were loath to assume too much risk during a period of decreased market liquidity. Vice finance minister Tango reported G20 central bankers and finance ministers will discuss the global economy and regulation of the financial markets when officials convene in London next week. Ongoing concerns that China will curb excess growth in the industrial sector continue to result in yen weakness. China remains a major engine of global growth and a weakening in industrial activity could precipitate slower global growth, thereby decreasing demand for higher-yielding assets. The repatriation of overseas yen assets back to Japan is also benefiting the yen. On the political front, Democratic Party of Japan leader Yukio Hatoyama published an editorial that suggested Japan should work with other Asian countries to create a single regional currency “and aspire to move toward regional currency integration.” It is likely that Hatoyama will become the next prime minister on 30 August if his Democratic Party of Japan defeats the long-incumbent Liberal Democratic Party. There is growing speculation the Bank of Japan may extend its forecast for the end of deflation into early 2012 from early 2011, and this suggests the central bank will keep its ultra-easy monetary policy unchanged from quite some time. The Nikkei 225 stock index lost 1.56% to close at ¥10,473.97. U.S. dollar offers are cited around the ¥104.15 level. The euro moved lower vis-à-vis the yen as the single currency tested bids around the ¥132.90 level and was capped around the ¥134.45 level. The British pound moved lower vis-à-vis the yen as sterling tested bids around the ¥151.05 level while the Swiss franc moved lower vis-à-vis the yen and tested bids around the ¥87.30 level. In Chinese news, the U.S. dollar gained ground vis-à-vis the Chinese yuan as the greenback closed at CNY 6.8273 in the over-the-counter market, up from CNY 6.8266. Chinese Premier Wen this week said the markets need to avoid being “blindly optimistic” about the global economic recovery and added China must maintain its “moderately loose” monetary policy and “active” fiscal policy. PBoC has reported it will ensure “reasonable and ample” liquidity.

The British pound moved lower vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested bids around the US$ 1.6155 level and was capped around the $ 1.6245 level. Cable reached its lowest level since 13 July. Bank of England Deputy Governor Bean reported it may take years to assess the efficacy of the central bank’s ₤175 billion asset purchasing program on account of “transmission lags.” Bean added the impact of the bond purchase program has been “moderately encouraging.” Cable offers are cited around the US$ 1.6355 level. The euro moved higher vis-à-vis the British pound as the single currency tested offers around the ₤0.8820 level and was supported around the ₤0.8770 level.
CHF
The Swiss franc appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the CHF 1.0660 level and was capped around the CHF 1.0705 level. UBS reported buying back assets from the Swiss National Bank is not an “immediate concern.” Swiss National Bank member Jordan this week reported it “isn’t time yet” to reverse its expansionary monetary policy, adding interest rates “will remain low.” He also verbally intervened against further franc strength, saying it will be prevented “resolutely.” U.S. dollar offers are cited around the CHF 1.0790 level. The euro moved higher vis-à-vis the Swiss franc as the single currency tested offers around the CHF 1.5240 level while the British pound moved lower vis-à-vis the Swiss franc as the single currency tested bids around the CHF 1.7255 level.


Europe could be rolling out of a recession, learn to day trade

The euro rose, headed for its first two-month advance against the dollar since March 2008, on growing evidence Europe is emerging from its worst recession. The 16-nation currency gained for an eighth day versus the pound, its longest streak in four years, before a European report forecast to show business and consumer confidence rose to the highest level in 10 months.
The yen fell against all 16 major counterparts after Japanese government reports showed unemployment rose to a record and consumer prices slumped. Japan’s opposition party may win elections on Aug. 30, polls show, halting the ruling party’s half-century grip on power.
The euro rose to $1.4359 as of 6:30 a.m. in London from $1.4341 in New York yesterday, when it reached $1.4406, the highest level since Aug. 7. The currency has advanced 0.7 percent this month. It climbed to 134.56 yen from 134.14 yen, and strengthened to 88.25 British pence from 88.07 pence.
The yen fell to 93.71 per dollar from 93.52 yesterday. It weakened to 78.64 per Australian dollar from 78.48, and traded at 64.34 versus New Zealand's dollar from 64.28.


Europe could be rolling out of a recession, learn to day trade

The euro rose, headed for its first two-month advance against the dollar since March 2008, on growing evidence Europe is emerging from its worst recession. The 16-nation currency gained for an eighth day versus the pound, its longest streak in four years, before a European report forecast to show business and consumer confidence rose to the highest level in 10 months.
The yen fell against all 16 major counterparts after Japanese government reports showed unemployment rose to a record and consumer prices slumped. Japan’s opposition party may win elections on Aug. 30, polls show, halting the ruling party’s half-century grip on power.
The euro rose to $1.4359 as of 6:30 a.m. in London from $1.4341 in New York yesterday, when it reached $1.4406, the highest level since Aug. 7. The currency has advanced 0.7 percent this month. It climbed to 134.56 yen from 134.14 yen, and strengthened to 88.25 British pence from 88.07 pence.
The yen fell to 93.71 per dollar from 93.52 yesterday. It weakened to 78.64 per Australian dollar from 78.48, and traded at 64.34 versus New Zealand's dollar from 64.28.


Tuesday, August 25, 2009

diverging topside wedge, learn to trade S&P 500 emini futures

diverging topside wedge, learn to trade S&P 500 emini futures: "

http://www.moneymakeredge.com/blog showing the elliot wave and a diverging wedge for the resistance on the bear trend we are in. Break to new highs or retrace to lower levels.
"

Yen is rising , Aussie dollar run turns learn to trade currency

The yen rose the most in a week against the euro and the dollar strengthened as renewed concern the U.S. financial crisis will linger sent Asian shares lower and revived demand for safer assets. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average declined 0.8 percent and the Shanghai Composite Index sank 4.1 percent. U.S. stocks yesterday erased gains after SunTrust, Georgia's biggest bank, said commercial real estate may falter through 2010.
Australia's dollar snapped a five-day advance against the greenback as crude oil, the nation's fourth-most valuable commodity export, declined and damped demand for higher-yielding securities.
The yen rose 0.7 percent, the most since Aug. 17, to 134.33 per euro as of 7:30 a.m. in London from 135.27 yesterday in New York. It climbed 0.6 percent to 94.00 per dollar from 94.56. The U.S. currency was at $1.4294 per euro from $1.4304, and advanced to $1.6396 versus the pound from $1.6417.
Australia's dollar slipped to 83.54 U.S. cents from 83.89 cents in New York yesterday, when it touched 84.29 cents, the most since Aug. 14 and near its highest level this year. Crude oil for October delivery dropped 1 percent to $73.64 a barrel.
The Nikkei 225 Stock Average declined 0.8 percent and the Shanghai Composite Index sank 4.1 percent. U.S. stocks yesterday erased gains after SunTrust, Georgia's biggest bank, said commercial real estate may falter through 2010.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, who led the biggest expansion of the central bank's power in its 95-year history to battle the worst economic slump since the Great Depression, will be nominated to a second term by President Barack Obama. Bernanke "has led the Fed through one of the worst financial crises that this nation and this world have ever faced," Obama said in remarks prepared for delivery today in Martha's Vineyard, Massachusetts, where Bernanke is to join him. Revived


Monday, August 24, 2009

Yen is falling gold is stalling. Learn to trade forex, live trading room.

The yen weakened for a third day against the euro as improving economic data and central bank comments that the global recession is abating spurred investors to buy higher-yielding assets.
The euro traded near the strongest level in two weeks against the dollar before a report that economists said will show European industrial orders fell at a slower pace. Asian stocks extended a global rally after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said last week chances for near-term growth "appear good." The Australian dollar rose a fifth day, recovering from losses this month amid concern China will slow lending and trim its demand for resources.
The yen fell to 135.90 per euro as of 7:44 a.m. in London from 135.21 in New York on Aug. 21. It earlier declined to 136.09 per euro, the weakest since Aug. 14. The Japanese currency dropped to 94.95 per dollar from 94.38. The dollar traded at $1.4313 per euro from $1.4326.
Australia's currency strengthened 0.5 percent to 83.86 U.S. cents and advanced 1.1 percent to 79.63 yen.
Gold, little changed in Asian trading, may decline after the biggest rally in three weeks spurred investors to sell the precious metal. Gold for immediate delivery dropped as much as 0.3 percent before trading little changed at $953.95 an ounce at 2:22 p.m. in Singapore.


Friday, August 21, 2009

Euro, Yen and US news for day trading forex


The euro moved higher vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.4275 level and was supported around the $1.4200 figure. European Central Bank member Bini Smaghi reiterated the central bank expects inflation to remain low over the coming year and will “do everything it takes to prevent it from rising.” He also indicatyed the ECB does not expect EMU-16 growth before the middle of 2010. Notably, EMU-16 GDP growth was -0.1% q/q, up from the record decline of -2.5% in the prior quarter. The euro moved higher partially on a reound in Chinese equity markets as the Shanghai Composite was up 4.5% today following recent flirtations with bear market territory. Other major news today focused on a warning from Germany’s finance ministry that the economic stabilization may not hold. It was reported last week that German GDP improved unexpectedly in the second quarter. In U.S. news, data released in the U.S. today saw the Philadelphia Fed’s manufacturing survey improve to 4.2 from -7.5 in July while July leading economic indicators were up 0.6%. Also, weekly initial jobless claims rose to 576,000 from a revised 561,000 and continuing jobless claims printed at 6.241 million, up from a revised 6.239 million. Euro bids are cited around the US$ 1.3900 figure.
¥/ CNY
The yen depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers around the ¥94.55 level and was supported around the ¥93.85 level. Bank of Japan Policy Board member Mizuno warned the domestic economic recovery could decelerate in the autumn, adding a sustained economic recovery would require “support from governments and central banks.” He said the BoJ should prepare Japan for an extended bout with deflation, warning that “price declines will ease only at a moderate pace” in the year starting April 2011. He also warned the central banks lacks the tools needed to “prop up prices and stimulate economic growth in the short term.” The yen’s direction is uncertain given the real possibility that economic growth may slow further. On the political front, a Democratic Party of Japan victory at the general election on 30 August could result in upward pressure on the yen and possibly more supply of Japanese government bonds. The Nikkei 225 stock index climbed 1.76% to close at ¥10,383.41. U.S. dollar offers are cited around the ¥104.15 level. The euro moved higher vis-à-vis the yen as the single currency tested offers around the ¥134.60 level and was supported around the ¥133.40 level. The British pound moved higher vis-à-vis the yen as sterling tested offers around the ¥156.70 level while the Swiss franc moved higher vis-à-vis the yen and tested offers around the ¥88.65 level. In Chinese news, the U.S. dollar lost ground vis-à-vis the Chinese yuan as the greenback closed at CNY 6.8273 in the over-the-counter market, down from CNY 6.8320.


Technical Outlook at 1230 GMT (EDT + 0400)

(Bid Price) (Today’s Intraday Range)

EUR/ USD 1.4254 1.4265, 1.4200
USD/ JPY 94.09 94.55, 93.85
GBP/ USD 1.6505 1.6604, 1.6450
USD/ CHF 1.0628 1.0684, 1.0621
AUD/USD 0.8312 0.8332, 0.8268
USD/CAD 1.0882 1.0994, 1.0862
NZD/USD 0.6760 0.6773, 0.6725
EUR/ JPY 134.11 134.60, 133.39
EUR/ GBP 0.8633 0.8642, 0.8569
GBP/ JPY 155.32 156.71, 154.52
CHF/ JPY 88.49 88.67, 87.94


Dollar currency trading, learn how to trade forex live

In another sign the worst of the U.S. recession is over, a gauge of current conditions showed the economy steadied last month. The Conference Board's coincident index was unchanged in July after falling in 17 of the 19 months since the contraction started in December 2007, figures from the New York-based private research group showed yesterday. The more closely watched gauge of leading indicators, which shows the outlook for the next three to six months, climbed for a fourth month.
The yen rose, heading for a second weekly gain against the euro, as China was said to be planning to tighten capital requirements for banks, accelerating losses in stocks and boosting demand for Japan's currency as a refuge. Higher-yielding currencies slid versus the yen and the dollar after people familiar with the matter said the China Banking Regulatory Commission sent a draft of the rule changes to banks on Aug. 19. The yen climbed versus all of its 16 major counterparts on concern toxic securities will continue to hurt U.S. banks, extending the global financial crisis.
The yen strengthened to 93.72 per dollar as of 7:27 a.m. in London from 94.19 in New York yesterday, after earlier reaching 93.48, the highest level since July 22. It has risen 1.3 percent in the past five days, adding to last week's 2.8 percent gain. Japan's currency climbed to 133.32 per euro from 134.26.
The dollar advanced to $1.4235 per euro from $1.4254 yesterday. It has weakened 0.2 percent versus the euro in the past five sessions, following a 0.1 percent decline last week.
The Australian dollar fell to 77.39 yen from 78.31 yen and dropped to 82.56 U.S. cents from 83.13 cents. The New Zealand dollar slid to 63.17 yen from 63.78, and declined to 67.39 U.S. cents from 67.72.



Thursday, August 13, 2009

Euro strengthened. learn to trade currencies and forex.

The euro strengthened for a third day against the dollar after a German report showed Europe's largest economy unexpectedly expanded in the second quarter, adding to signs the global recession is abating. Germany's Federal Statistics Office said today gross domestic product expanded a seasonally adjusted 0.3 percent from the previous three months, when it slumped a record 3.5 percent.
Europe's currency also gained for a second day versus the yen before a European report that economists said will show the contraction in the 16-nation region slowed last quarter. The dollar fell against 14 of the 16 major currencies after the Federal Reserve said it will keep interest rates low for an "extended period," diminishing the appeal of U.S. assets. The Fed also said in its statement following its two-day meeting yesterday that the economy is "leveling out." and indicated it will wind down purchases of Treasuries that had been slated to end in September. The central bank has left its target rate for overnight lending between zero and 0.25 percent since December.
The euro strengthened to $1.4268 as of 7:38 a.m. in London from $1.4188 yesterday in New York. It advanced to $1.4447 on Aug. 5, the highest level since Dec. 18. Europe’s currency climbed to 137.24 yen from 136.32 yen. The yen traded at 96.15 per dollar from 96.06.


Wednesday, August 12, 2009

Who dugg: S&P 500 day trading course July 23 home sales learn trading

Who dugg: S&P 500 day trading course July 23 home sales learn trading

Yen strengthens on Chinese equities slipping, learn to trade currency

The yen rose for a third day against the euro and the dollar as Asian stocks extended a global slide in equities, increasing demand for the relative safety of Japan's currency.
The yen also gained versus all of its 16 major counterparts after China's Commerce Ministry said efforts to boost the economy cannot fully offset slumping export demand.
The dollar weakened against the yen on speculation the Federal Reserve will today affirm its commitment to keeping interest rates low, reducing the appeal of U.S. bonds.
The yen advanced to 134.82 per euro as of 7:48 a.m. in London from 135.82 in New York yesterday, after earlier rising to 134.79, the highest level since Aug. 3. Japan's currency climbed to 95.46 per dollar from 95.99. The dollar traded at $1.4125 per euro from $1.4149.
Gold advanced after U.S. stocks fell and the dollar depreciated on concern that bank earnings will not improve in the second half. Bullion snapped a five-day decline, the longest run of losses in five months, as the Dollar Index also fell on speculation the Federal Reserve will affirm its commitment to keeping interest rates low. Gold for immediate delivery rose as much as 0.3 percent to $948.45 an ounce before trading at $946.70 at 12:58 p.m. in Singapore. The metal is up 7.3 percent this year.


This weeks news for Forex trading Aug 12-14

Wednesday, 12 August 2009
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)

0100 Australia August Westpac consumer confidence (9.3%)
0130 Australia Q2 wage cost index (0.8% q/q)
0130 Australia Q2 wage cost index (4.2% y/y)
0430 Japan June industrial production
0430 Japan June capacity utilization (8.0% m/m)
0500 Japan Bank of Japan monthly report
0645 France July consumer price index (0.1% m/m)
0645 France July consumer price index (-0.5% y/y)
0645 France July CPI, harmonized (0.1% m/m)
0645 France July CPI, harmonized (-0.6% y/y)
0645 France June current account (-€2.2 billion)
0800 Italy July consumer price index
0830 UK July jobless claims change (23,800)
0830 UK July claimant count rate (4.8%)
0830 UK June ILO unemployment rate (7.6%)
0830 UK June average earnings, bonus (2.3%)
0900 Eurozone June industrial production (0.5% m/m)
0900 Eurozone June industrial production (-17.0% y/y)
0930 UK Bank of England quarterly inflation report
1100 US MBA mortgage applications
1230 US June trade balance (-US$ 26.0 billion)
1230 Canada June international merchandise trade
1230 Canada June new housing price index (-0.1% m/m)
1815 US Federal Open Market Committee interest rate decision

Thursday, 13 August 2009
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)

N/A Japan July Tokyo-area department store sales (-11.4% y/y)
N/A Japan July nationwide department store sales (-8.8% y/y)
0100 Australia August consumer inflation expectations (3.2%)
0130 Australia Average weekly wages
0400 Japan July Tokyo-area condominium sales (-23.0% y/y)
0600 Germany Q2 gross domestic product (-6.7% y/y)
0645 France Q2 gross domestic product (-1.2% q/q)
0645 France Q2 gross domestic product (-3.2% y/y)
0715 CH July producer and import prices (0.0% m/m)
0715 CH July producer and import prices (-5.6% y/y)
0800 Eurozone European Central Bank monthly report
0900 Eurozone Q2 gross domestic product (-2.5% q/q)
0900 Eurozone Q2 gross domestic product (-4.9% y/y)
1230 US Continuing jobless claims (6.310 million)
1230 US Weekly initial jobless claims (550,000)
1230 US July import price index (3.2% m/m)
1230 US July import price index (-17.4% y/y)
1230 US July retail sales (0.6%)
1230 US July retail sales, ex-autos (0.3%)
1230 US June business inventories (-1.0%)
2245 NZ Q2 retail sales, ex-inflation (-2.9% q/q)
2245 NZ June retail sales, ex-autos (1.6% m/m)
2245 NZ June retail sales (0.8% m/m)
2330 Australia Reserve Bank of Australia Governor testifies
2350 Japan June tertiary industry index (-0.1% m/m)
2350 Japan Bank of Japan Policy Board meeting minutes
2350 Japan July M3 money supply (1.7% y/y)

Friday, 14 August 2009
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)

0645 France Q2 wages (0.8% q/q)
0900 Eurozone July consumer price index (0.2% m/m)
0900 Eurozone July consumer price index (-0.1% y/y)
0900 Eurozone July consumer price index, core (1.4% y/y)
1230 US July consumer price index, ex-food and energy (0.2% m/m)
1230 US July consumer price index, ex-food and energy (1.7% y/y)
1230 US July consumer price index (0.7% m/m)
1230 US July consumer price index (-1.4% y/y)
1315 US July capacity utilization (68.0%)
1315 US July industrial production (-0.4%)
1400 US University of Michigan consumer sentiment (66)



Currency support and resistance Aug 12

Support Resistance Support Resistance

EUR/ USD USD/ JPY


L1. 1.3780 1.4295 90.05 98.85
L2. 1.3605 1.4630 88.60 101.65
L3. 1.3400 1.5105 87.10 105.05

GBP/ USD USD/ CHF

L1. 1.5845 1.6495 1.0510 1.1165
L2. 1.5690 1.6740 1.0275 1.1270
L3. 1.5440 1.6830 0.9750 1.1555

AUD/ USD USD/ CAD

L1. 0.7715 0.8250 1.1340 1.1920
L2. 0.7440 0.8555 1.1130 1.2190
L3. 0.7165 0.9050 1.0725 1.2520


NZD/ USD EUR/ JPY

L1. 0.6190 0.6665 125.65 134.50
L2. 0.6020 0.6945 121.70 139.80
L3. 0.5655 0.7760 118.50 141.50

EUR/ GBP EUR/ CHF

L1. 0.8320 0.8770 1.4905 1.5380
L2. 0.7870 0.9080 1.4670 1.5580
L3. 0.7590 0.9355 1.4420 1.5880

GBP/ JPY CHF/ JPY

L1. 146.10 157.75 81.55 93.55
L2. 142.05 160.30 79.20 97.90
L3. 135.70 167.30 75.40 105.05





Major currencies, learn to trade forex at live trading room Aug 12


The euro gained marginal ground vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.4185 level and was supported around the $1.4110 level. Most traders believe the Federal Open Market Committee will keep interest rates unchanged when its policy decision is announced tomorrow. Many economists believe the FOMC will keep interest rates unchanged through at least 2010 on account of the global credit crisis. Traders are curious to see if the Fed changes any significant verbiage in its statement and gives any further clues about unwinding its massive monetary stimuli. The Fed’s balance sheet is currently right around the US$ 2 trillion level and has been declining over the past few weeks, an indication it is gradually reducing some of its quantitative easing programs. One program that traders are paying close attention to is the Fed’s purchase of U.S. Treasury securities. It is expected the Fed will allow its current US$ 300 billion purchase program to expire when that amount is reached, likely in September. There is speculation the Fed will be actively discussing pending problems in the U.S. commercial real estate market. There is an expectation the sector could worsen significantly early next year. Fed Chairman Bernanke recently noted the Fed is “paying very close attention” to the sector and highlighted “increased vacancy, declining rents, and falling prices.” Data released in the U.S. today saw Q2 non-farm productivity improve 6.4% from a downwardly revised Q1 reading of 0.3%. While these data mean U.S. workers are becoming more productive, they also signify higher productivity is coincident with considerably higher unemployment. Q2 labour costs were off 5.8%, down from a revised -2.7% in Q1, and June wholesale inventories were off 1.7%, down from a revised -1.2% in May. In eurozone news, the German July wholesale price index was off 0.5% m/m and 10.6% y/y while the July consumer price index was unchanged m/m and off 0.5% y/y. Euro bids are cited around the US$ 1.3900 figure.


¥/ CNY
The yen appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the ¥95.75 level and was capped around the ¥97.15 level. The yen extended recent gains across the board with U.S. equities under pressure and risk appetite lower globally, favouring the yen. As expected, Bank of Japan’s Policy Board voted unanimously to keep the overnight call rate target unchanged at 0.10% and kept its economic assessment unchanged. BoJ Governor Shirakawa pessimistically noted “Even if we have a recovery, I don’t think its strength will be impressive. I can’t be confident about the strength of final demand after inventory adjustments and policy measures run their course.” The central bank reiterated it remains concerned about “downside risks to economic activity and prices” and merely noted the economy has “stopped worsening.” Data to be released next week may show Japan’s economy expanded around 4.0% in the three months that ended 30 June. Deflationary pressures have returned to the economy. Consumer prices excluding fresh food fall a record 1.7% in June and this may pressure policymakers into keeping rates low through 2011. Data released in Japan overnight saw the government’s consumer sentiment index improve to 39.4 from 37.6 in June, its highest level since November 2007 and the seventh consecutive monthly improvement. The Nikkei 225 stock index climbed 0.58% to close at ¥10,585.46. U.S. dollar offers are cited around the ¥104.15 level. The euro moved lower vis-à-vis the yen as the single currency tested bids around the ¥135.25 level and was capped around the ¥137.40 level. The British pound moved lower vis-à-vis the yen as sterling tested bids around the ¥157.80 level while the Swiss franc moved lower vis-à-vis the yen and tested bids around the ¥88.40 level. In Chinese news, the U.S. dollar gained ground vis-à-vis the Chinese yuan as the greenback closed at CNY 6.8355 in the over-the-counter market, up from CNY 6.8313. Data released in China overnight saw July exports decline a staggering 23% y/y while July factory output was up a weaker-than-expected 10.8%. Also, July CPI was off 1.8% y/y and July PPI was off 8.2% y/y with July retail sales up 15.2% y/y.

The British pound lost minor ground vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested bids around the US$ 1.6430 level and was capped around the $1.6520 level. Traders await the release of Bank of England’s quarterly inflation report tomorrow. Data released in the U.K. today saw the June DCLG house price index off 10.7% while the June goods trade deficit increased to ₤6.5 billion from ₤6.2 billion. Other news out of the U.K. today suggests the BoE earned more than a 10% return on its ₤918 million portfolio of corporate bonds. Cable bids are cited around the US$ 1.6215 level. The euro moved higher vis-à-vis the British pound as the single currency tested offers around the ₤0.8615 level and was supported around the ₤0.8560 level.


Tuesday, August 11, 2009

Learn to trade currencies, Forex live trading room Aug 11

The yen rose for a second day against the euro and the dollar after Chinese reports showed industrial output grew less than expected and exports fell, spurring demand for the relative safety of Japan's currency.
China's statistics bureau said industrial production grew 10.8 percent in July, below the median estimate for a 11.5 percent gain forecast by economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Consumer prices fell 1.8 percent and producer prices slid a record 8.2 percent. Exports dropped 23 percent from a year earlier, the customs bureau said.
The yen strengthened versus all of its 16 major counterparts after China also said producer and consumer prices both dropped. The euro slid to the lowest level in almost a week against Japan's currency after Standard & Poor's cut the credit ratings of Estonia and Latvia.
The yen advanced to 137.05 per euro as of 7:33 a.m. in London from 137.36 in New York yesterday, after earlier rising to 136.46, the strongest level since Aug. 5. It climbed to 96.84 per dollar from 97.15. The euro traded at $1.4152 from $1.4140, and bought 85.80 British pence from 85.79 pence.
Gold traded near the lowest this month on speculation that the dollar will continue to advance on data pointing to a recovery in the U.S. jobs market. Bullion touched $943.50 an ounce yesterday, the lowest level price since July 31, as the Dollar Index, a six-currency gauge of the greenback’s strength, extended a rebound from a 10- month low. Gold for immediate delivery traded little changed at $946.15 an ounce at 8:56 a.m. in Singapore. The metal is up 7.3 percent this year.


Monday, August 10, 2009

Japanese currency ended 2 days losses, learn to trade forex.

The yen rose for the first time in three days against the euro after government reports showed Japan's recession may be abating, encouraging foreign investors to buy assets in the world’s second-biggest economy.
The Japanese currency ended two days of losses versus the dollar after machine orders rose, exports improved and as speculation intensified that exporters brought back overseas earnings. The pound traded near a five-week high against the euro before a U.K. report tomorrow which economists said will show the housing market improved for a fifth month.
The yen advanced to 138.01 per euro as of 7:45 a.m. in London from 138.41 in New York on Aug. 7, when it declined to 138.72, the lowest level since June 5. The Japanese currency climbed to 97.22 per dollar from 97.57, after falling to 97.79 on Aug. 7, the weakest level since June 16.
The dollar traded at $1.4196 per euro from $1.4183 in New York on Aug. 7, when it rose to $1.4155, the highest level since July 31. Europe's single currency traded at 85.12 pence from 84.98 pence. It slipped to 84.56 pence on Aug. 6, the weakest level since June 30.
Exchange-rate movements may be exaggerated by Japan's Obon holidays this week, when Japanese often take week-long vacations to honor ancestors.


Wednesday, August 5, 2009

Yen is up, learn to trade forex

Canada's currency dropped from near the highest level in 10 months as Finance Minister Jim Flaherty said he is concerned about its "rapid" appreciation and said there are steps the central bank could take to damp its rise. The currency weakened 0.6 percent to C$1.0726 per U.S. dollar at 5 p.m. in Toronto, from C$1.0658 yesterday, when it gained 1.1 percent, the most in almost three weeks. It touched C$1.0633 earlier today, the strongest since Oct. 2. One Canadian dollar buys 93.23 U.S. cents.

The yen and the dollar rose after Lloyds Banking Group Plc posted a first-half loss and increased the size of bad-debt provisions, boosting demand for the safety of the Japanese and U.S. currencies.

The pound fell for the first time in six days against the yen after London-based Lloyds said its total impairments in the first half were "significantly" higher at 13.4 billion pounds ($22.7 billion). The yen gained for a second day against the euro as Asian shares dropped and on speculation Japanese exporters took advantage of the yen’s 1.3 percent drop versus Europe's currency this month to bring home funds.

Japan's currency rose to 94.93 per dollar as of 7:38 a.m. in London from 95.23 yesterday in New York. It advanced to 136.51 per euro from 137.21. The dollar climbed to $1.4378 per euro from $1.4408. The pound dropped to $1.6912 from $1.6939, and fell to 160.84 yen from 161.31 yen.


Tuesday, August 4, 2009

Forex trades, learn to trade currency, jpy trade and gbp trade




The yen rose as traders scaled back bets on higher-yielding currencies and stocks snapped three days of gains, fueling demand for the Japanese currency as a haven.
The yen advanced most against the Swedish krona and South African rand as Standard Chartered Plc said it plans to raise $1.69 billion in a share sale and Yamaha Motor Co., the world’s second-largest maker of motor bikes, forecast a wider loss. The euro weakened versus the dollar after a report showed producer prices fell at a record pace. The Australian dollar fell after the Reserve Bank of Australia kept interest rates at the lowest level in half a century. The yen also gained on speculation Japanese exporters are taking advantage of the currency’s decline against the euro and the dollar to bring home income from abroad. The yen has dropped 7.1 percent compared with the euro this year and 4.2 percent versus the dollar.
The yen strengthened to 136.38 per euro as of 6:24 a.m. in New York, from 137.31 yesterday, and to 94.71 per dollar, from 95.26. The euro traded at $1.4396, from $1.4412 yesterday, when it rose to $1.4445, the strongest since Dec. 18.
Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index fell 0.8 percent after trading at its highest level relative to profits since 2003. The MSCI World Index declined 0.2 percent.

Here are yesterday's positions.


Monday, August 3, 2009

Forex high lights Yen decline, Pound takes off on economic news

Learning to trade Forex.

The yen declined and the pound rose after HSBC Holdings Plc posted an unexpected profit and former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said the most severe recession in at least five decades may be ending.
Economic growth may resume at a rate faster than most economists foresee, Greenspan said in an interview yesterday on ABC's "This Week" program, predicting 2.5 percent in the current quarter.
The pound rose for a sixth day against the euro, gaining to 84.89 pence as the U.K.'s Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply and Market Economics said today manufacturing expanded in July for the first time in more than a year.
Japan's currency fell against all its 16 most-traded counterparts on increased demand for higher-yielding assets as HSBC reported its results. U.S. manufacturing shrank in July at the slowest pace in almost year, a report from the Institute for Supply Management is forecast to show today.
The yen weakened 1 percent to 159.76 per pound at 7:12 a.m. in New York, from 158.23 on July 31. Japan's currency dropped 0.5 percent to 135.70 per euro and slid 0.3 percent to 94.97 per dollar. The U.S. currency declined 0.2 percent to $1.4290 per euro, compared with $1.4257.


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