Currency trading Euro moved lower Aug 29

The euro moved lower vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.4320 level and was capped around the $1.4390 level. Data released in the U.S. today saw July personal income growth at 0.0%, up from June’s revised -1.1% decline. July personal spending printed at +0.2%, down from June’s revised print of +0.6%. Also, the July personal consumption expenditures deflator was off 0.8% y/y, worse than the 0.4% June reading. At the core level, the July core rate up 0.1% m/m and 1.4% y/y. Finally, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment indicator came in at 65.7, above the prior mid-August reading of 63.2 but below the July reading of 66.0. The common currency failed to sustain its gains through the North American session as U.S. equity prices retreated in the session. St. Louis Fed President Bullard was on the wires earlier and dovishly said the Fed needs to see much more “convincing” economic data before contemplating an increase in rates. In eurozone news, the European Commissions’s economic sentiment indicator improved to 80.6 from a reading of 76 in July. Many economists believe the eurozone economy will expand around 0.5% q/q in the third quarter. Bundesbank reported German banks expect a modest increase in lending volumes in the second half of 2009 and in 2010, corroborating the central bank’s assessment there is no credit crunch in the eurozone’s largest economy. German Chancellor Merkel today reported the German economy might contract 5% or 6% in 2009. Euro bids are cited around the US$ 1.3900 figure.
¥/ CNY
The yen appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the ¥93.40 level and was capped around the ¥94.05 level. All eyes are focused on this weekend’s general election in Japan where the long-incumbent Liberal Democratic Party looks poised to lose its stronghold on power to the Democratic Party of Japan. Some Japan-watchers believe this will result in increased Japanese government bond issuance to finance the expected increase in public works spending. It is unclear how a DPJ victory would impact the yen. Japan is expected to battle deflation through early 2012 and will need all the help it can get from its slumping export sector through a weaker yen. Many data were released in Japan overnight. First, the July unemployment rate rose to 5.7% from 5.4 in June, the largest print since World War II and significantly above expectations. Second, the July nationwide consumer price index was off 0.3% m/m and off 2.2% y/y with the core rate off 0.2% m/m and 2.2% y/y. The Tokyo-area August consumer price index was up +0.3% m/m and +0.1% y/y with the core component flat m/m and off 0.2% y/y. Other data saw July all household spending off 2.0% y/y while the trade surplus for the first ten days in August printed at ¥48.08 billion, off 69.2% y/y. The Nikkei 225 stock index climbed 0.57% to close at ¥10,534.14. U.S. dollar offers are cited around the ¥104.15 level. The euro moved higher vis-à-vis the yen as the single currency tested offers around the ¥135.00 figure and was supported around the ¥134.00 figure. The British pound moved higher vis-à-vis the yen as sterling tested offers around the ¥153.60 level while the Swiss franc moved higher vis-à-vis the yen and tested offers around the ¥88.90 level. In Chinese news, the U.S. dollar lost ground vis-à-vis the Chinese yuan as the greenback closed at CNY 6.8256 in the over-the-counter market, down from CNY 6.8273. Chinese Premier Wen this week said the markets need to avoid being “blindly optimistic” about the global economic recovery and added China must maintain its “moderately loose” monetary policy and “active” fiscal policy. PBoC has reported it will ensure “reasonable and ample” liquidity.




Technical Outlook at 1230 GMT (EDT + 0400)

(Bid Price) (Today’s Intraday Range)

EUR/ USD 1.4371 1.4388, 1.4324
USD/ JPY 93.60 94.06, 93.40
GBP/ USD 1.6305 1.6380, 1.6260
USD/ CHF 1.0561 1.0617, 1.0538
AUD/USD 0.8443 0.8469, 0.8375
USD/CAD 1.0831 1.0893, 1.0790
NZD/USD 0.6867 0.6892, 0.6840
EUR/ JPY 134.47 135.00, 134.03
EUR/ GBP 0.8813 0.8829, 0.8774
GBP/ JPY 152.54 153.61, 151.96
CHF/ JPY 88.58 88.91, 88.20


Support Resistance Support Resistance

EUR/ USD USD/ JPY


L1. 1.3780 1.4295 90.05 98.85
L2. 1.3605 1.4630 88.60 101.65
L3. 1.3400 1.5105 87.10 105.05

GBP/ USD USD/ CHF

L1. 1.5845 1.6495 1.0510 1.1165
L2. 1.5690 1.6740 1.0275 1.1270
L3. 1.5440 1.6830 0.9750 1.1555

AUD/ USD USD/ CAD

L1. 0.7715 0.8250 1.1340 1.1920
L2. 0.7440 0.8555 1.1130 1.2190
L3. 0.7165 0.9050 1.0725 1.2520


NZD/ USD EUR/ JPY

L1. 0.6190 0.6665 125.65 134.50
L2. 0.6020 0.6945 121.70 139.80
L3. 0.5655 0.7760 118.50 141.50

EUR/ GBP EUR/ CHF

L1. 0.8320 0.8770 1.4905 1.5380
L2. 0.7870 0.9080 1.4670 1.5580
L3. 0.7590 0.9355 1.4420 1.5880

GBP/ JPY CHF/ JPY

L1. 146.10 157.75 81.55 93.55
L2. 142.05 160.30 79.20 97.90
L3. 135.70 167.30 75.40 105.05




SCHEDULE


Wednesday, 26 August 2009
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)

0030 Australia Q2 construction work done
0100 Australia August DEWR skilled vacancies (-1.7% m/m)
0500 Japan August small business confidence (41.1)
0800 Germany August Ifo business sentiment, expectations (90.4)
0800 Germany August Ifo, business climate (87.3)
0800 Germany August Ifo, current assessment (84.3)
1100 US MBA mortgage applications (5.6%)
1230 US July durable goods orders (-2.5%)
1230 US July durable goods orders, ex-transportation (1.1%)
1400 US July new home sales (384,000)
1400 US July new home sales (11.0% m/m
1600 France July total jobseekers
1600 US Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Lockhart speaks
2245 NZ July trade balance

Thursday, 27 August 2009
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)

N/A Eurozone August Ifo business climate survey
N/A Germany August consumer price index (0.0% m/m)
N/A Germany August consumer price index (-0.5% y/y)
N/A Germany August CPI, harmonized (-0.1% m/m)
N/A Germany August CPI, harmonized (-0.7% y/y)
0000 Australia June leading index (-0.1%)
0130 Australia Q2 private capital expenditure (-8.9%)
0610 Germany September GfK consumer confidence survey (3.5)
0800 Italy August PMI, retail (45.6)
0800 France August PMI, retail (46.0)
0800 Germany August PMI, retail (49.8)
0800 Eurozone August PMI, retail (47.3)
0800 Eurozone July M3 money supply (3.5% y/y)
0830 UK Q2 total business investment (-7.6% q/q)
0830 UK Q2 total business investment (-9.7% y/y)
1000 UK CBI quarterly distributive trades (-17)
1230 US Q2 gross domestic product, annualized (-1.0%0
1230 US Q2 personal consumption expenditure, core (2.0% q/q)
1230 US Q2 gross domestic product price index (0.2%)
1230 US Weekly initial jobless claims (576,000)
1230 US Continuing jobless claims (6.241 million)
2100 US Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President Bullard speaks
2245 NZ July building permits (-9.5% m/m)
2301 UK August GfK consumer confidence (-25)
2315 Japan August PMI, manufacturing (50.4)
2330 Japan July jobless rate (5.4%)
2330 Japan July household spending (0.2% y/y)
2330 Japan August Tokyo-area consumer price index (-1.8% y/y)
2330 Japan August Tokyo-area CPI, ex-food, energy (-1.1% y/y)
2330 Japan July national consumer price index (-1.8% y/y)
2330 Japan July national CPI, ex-food, energy (-0.7% y/y)

Friday, 28 August 2009
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)

0300 NZ July M3 money supply (2.7% y/y)
0830 UK Q2 gross domestic product (-0.8% q/q)
0830 UK Q2 gross domestic product (-5.6% y/y)
0900 Italy July producer price index
0900 Eurozone August economic confidence (76.0)
0900 Eurozone August business climate indicator (-2.71)
0900 Eurozone August consumer confidence (-23)
0900 Eurozone August industrial confidence (-30)
0900 Eurozone August services confidence (-18)
0930 CH August KOF leading indicator (-0.99)
1230 US July personal income (-1.3%)
1230 US July personal spending (0.4%)
1230 US July CPE deflator (-0.4% y/y)
1230 US July CPE, core (0.2% m/m)
1230 US July PCE, core (1.5% y/y)
1230 Canada Q2 current account (-C$ 9.1 billion)
1230 Canada July industrial product prices (0.7% m/m)
1230 Canada July raw materials price index (6.2% m/m)
1400 US August University of Michigan consumer sentiment (63.2)


DISCLAIMER: GCI’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. GCI assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

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Euro, Yen and US news for day trading forex

€
The euro moved higher vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.4275 level and was supported around the $1.4200 figure. European Central Bank member Bini Smaghi reiterated the central bank expects inflation to remain low over the coming year and will “do everything it takes to prevent it from rising.” He also indicatyed the ECB does not expect EMU-16 growth before the middle of 2010. Notably, EMU-16 GDP growth was -0.1% q/q, up from the record decline of -2.5% in the prior quarter. The euro moved higher partially on a reound in Chinese equity markets as the Shanghai Composite was up 4.5% today following recent flirtations with bear market territory. Other major news today focused on a warning from Germany’s finance ministry that the economic stabilization may not hold. It was reported last week that German GDP improved unexpectedly in the second quarter. In U.S. news, data released in the U.S. today saw the Philadelphia Fed’s manufacturing survey improve to 4.2 from -7.5 in July while July leading economic indicators were up 0.6%. Also, weekly initial jobless claims rose to 576,000 from a revised 561,000 and continuing jobless claims printed at 6.241 million, up from a revised 6.239 million. Euro bids are cited around the US$ 1.3900 figure.
¥/ CNY
The yen depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers around the ¥94.55 level and was supported around the ¥93.85 level. Bank of Japan Policy Board member Mizuno warned the domestic economic recovery could decelerate in the autumn, adding a sustained economic recovery would require “support from governments and central banks.” He said the BoJ should prepare Japan for an extended bout with deflation, warning that “price declines will ease only at a moderate pace” in the year starting April 2011. He also warned the central banks lacks the tools needed to “prop up prices and stimulate economic growth in the short term.” The yen’s direction is uncertain given the real possibility that economic growth may slow further. On the political front, a Democratic Party of Japan victory at the general election on 30 August could result in upward pressure on the yen and possibly more supply of Japanese government bonds. The Nikkei 225 stock index climbed 1.76% to close at ¥10,383.41. U.S. dollar offers are cited around the ¥104.15 level. The euro moved higher vis-à-vis the yen as the single currency tested offers around the ¥134.60 level and was supported around the ¥133.40 level. The British pound moved higher vis-à-vis the yen as sterling tested offers around the ¥156.70 level while the Swiss franc moved higher vis-à-vis the yen and tested offers around the ¥88.65 level. In Chinese news, the U.S. dollar lost ground vis-à-vis the Chinese yuan as the greenback closed at CNY 6.8273 in the over-the-counter market, down from CNY 6.8320.


Technical Outlook at 1230 GMT (EDT + 0400)

(Bid Price) (Today’s Intraday Range)

EUR/ USD 1.4254 1.4265, 1.4200
USD/ JPY 94.09 94.55, 93.85
GBP/ USD 1.6505 1.6604, 1.6450
USD/ CHF 1.0628 1.0684, 1.0621
AUD/USD 0.8312 0.8332, 0.8268
USD/CAD 1.0882 1.0994, 1.0862
NZD/USD 0.6760 0.6773, 0.6725
EUR/ JPY 134.11 134.60, 133.39
EUR/ GBP 0.8633 0.8642, 0.8569
GBP/ JPY 155.32 156.71, 154.52
CHF/ JPY 88.49 88.67, 87.94

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The yen rose for a second day against the euro and the dollar after Chinese reports showed industrial output grew less than expected and exports fell, spurring demand for the relative safety of Japan's currency.
China's statistics bureau said industrial production grew 10.8 percent in July, below the median estimate for a 11.5 percent gain forecast by economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Consumer prices fell 1.8 percent and producer prices slid a record 8.2 percent. Exports dropped 23 percent from a year earlier, the customs bureau said.
The yen strengthened versus all of its 16 major counterparts after China also said producer and consumer prices both dropped. The euro slid to the lowest level in almost a week against Japan's currency after Standard & Poor's cut the credit ratings of Estonia and Latvia.
The yen advanced to 137.05 per euro as of 7:33 a.m. in London from 137.36 in New York yesterday, after earlier rising to 136.46, the strongest level since Aug. 5. It climbed to 96.84 per dollar from 97.15. The euro traded at $1.4152 from $1.4140, and bought 85.80 British pence from 85.79 pence.
Gold traded near the lowest this month on speculation that the dollar will continue to advance on data pointing to a recovery in the U.S. jobs market. Bullion touched $943.50 an ounce yesterday, the lowest level price since July 31, as the Dollar Index, a six-currency gauge of the greenback’s strength, extended a rebound from a 10- month low. Gold for immediate delivery traded little changed at $946.15 an ounce at 8:56 a.m. in Singapore. The metal is up 7.3 percent this year.

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Japanese currency ended 2 days losses, learn to trade forex.

The yen rose for the first time in three days against the euro after government reports showed Japan's recession may be abating, encouraging foreign investors to buy assets in the world’s second-biggest economy.
The Japanese currency ended two days of losses versus the dollar after machine orders rose, exports improved and as speculation intensified that exporters brought back overseas earnings. The pound traded near a five-week high against the euro before a U.K. report tomorrow which economists said will show the housing market improved for a fifth month.
The yen advanced to 138.01 per euro as of 7:45 a.m. in London from 138.41 in New York on Aug. 7, when it declined to 138.72, the lowest level since June 5. The Japanese currency climbed to 97.22 per dollar from 97.57, after falling to 97.79 on Aug. 7, the weakest level since June 16.
The dollar traded at $1.4196 per euro from $1.4183 in New York on Aug. 7, when it rose to $1.4155, the highest level since July 31. Europe's single currency traded at 85.12 pence from 84.98 pence. It slipped to 84.56 pence on Aug. 6, the weakest level since June 30.
Exchange-rate movements may be exaggerated by Japan's Obon holidays this week, when Japanese often take week-long vacations to honor ancestors.

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Canada's currency dropped from near the highest level in 10 months as Finance Minister Jim Flaherty said he is concerned about its "rapid" appreciation and said there are steps the central bank could take to damp its rise. The currency weakened 0.6 percent to C$1.0726 per U.S. dollar at 5 p.m. in Toronto, from C$1.0658 yesterday, when it gained 1.1 percent, the most in almost three weeks. It touched C$1.0633 earlier today, the strongest since Oct. 2. One Canadian dollar buys 93.23 U.S. cents.

The yen and the dollar rose after Lloyds Banking Group Plc posted a first-half loss and increased the size of bad-debt provisions, boosting demand for the safety of the Japanese and U.S. currencies.

The pound fell for the first time in six days against the yen after London-based Lloyds said its total impairments in the first half were "significantly" higher at 13.4 billion pounds ($22.7 billion). The yen gained for a second day against the euro as Asian shares dropped and on speculation Japanese exporters took advantage of the yen’s 1.3 percent drop versus Europe's currency this month to bring home funds.

Japan's currency rose to 94.93 per dollar as of 7:38 a.m. in London from 95.23 yesterday in New York. It advanced to 136.51 per euro from 137.21. The dollar climbed to $1.4378 per euro from $1.4408. The pound dropped to $1.6912 from $1.6939, and fell to 160.84 yen from 161.31 yen.

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Currency trading, Euro advances as consumer spending increases.

The yen and the dollar fell against higher-yielding currencies as stocks gained before a U.S. report that economists said will show an index of leading economic indicators rose, damping demand for safer assets.

The euro advanced to a two-week high against the dollar before a French report this week that may show consumer spending rebounded last month, signaling the worst of the global recession is over.

The Canadian dollar registered its first five-day increase since May, ending a six-week losing streak, as investors raised bets on higher-yielding assets on speculation the global recession is easing. Canada’s currency, appreciated to C$1.1134 per U.S. dollar in Toronto, from C$1.1638 on July 10. Its last weekly gain, a 2.6 percent increase, was posted May 29. One Canadian dollar buys 89.81 U.S. cents.

The yen declined to 134.10 per euro as of 7:40 a.m. in London from 132.85 in New York last week, after earlier dropping to 134.34, matching its low on July 6. The dollar fell to $1.4160 per euro from $1.4102, after slipping to $1.4181, the weakest level since July 1. Japan’s currency slid to 94.75 versus the dollar from 94.19.

Crude oil rose for a fourth day on speculation demand will increase as stock markets advanced and Chinese refiners boosted processing to a 16-month high. Crude oil for August delivery rose as much as 73 cents, or 1.2 percent, to $64.29 a barrel in after-hours electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices were at $64.25 at 2:10 p.m. Singapore time. Oil has gained 44 percent this year.

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The yen fell from a four-month high against the dollar on speculation Japanese importers sold the currency and as technical charts signaled its 3 percent gain in the past five days was excessive.

The yen weakened versus all of its 16 major counterparts after a Japanese government official said excessive currency movements were undesirable, spurring speculation the nation may eventually intervene to limit its gains. The yen and the dollar also fell as U.S. stock futures advanced and the International Monetary Fund said the global recovery next year will be stronger than it forecast in April, encouraging investors to buy higher-yielding assets.

The yen declined to 93.19 versus the dollar as of 7:40 a.m. in London from 92.88 in New York yesterday, when it strengthened to 91.81, the highest level since Feb. 17. Japan's currency fell to 129.85 per euro from 128.95. The euro advanced to $1.3927 from $1.3884.

Crude oil rebounded from a seven-week low as traders took the view that the decline in prices during the longest losing streak this year was overdone. Oil snapped a six-day slump as traders bought contracts based on technical indicators. Crude has fallen below $62.55 a barrel yesterday, the lower resistance level of the Bollinger Band, indicating it was oversold. Crude oil for August delivery gained as much as 85 cents, or 1.4 percent, to $60.99 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, and traded at $60.81 at 3:30 p.m. Singapore time. Futures touched $60.01 yesterday before closing down 4.4

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The yen strengthened to a six-week high against the euro and the dollar as Asian stocks fell and Japanese machinery orders unexpectedly declined, adding to signs the global recession is far from over.

The yen rose against all of the 16 major currencies for a second day on speculation the worldwide slump will sap corporate earnings, increasing demand for safer assets. The dollar fell for a third day against the yen on concern the greenback's role as the world's reserve currency will be questioned at a Group of Eight meeting starting today.

The yen rose to 130.97 per euro as of 7:48 a.m. in London, from 132.13 yesterday in New York. It earlier climbed to 130.42, the strongest since May 21. Japan’s currency advanced to 94.25 per dollar, after reaching 94.08, the highest since May 22. The euro fell to $1.3893 from $1.3924. The pound weakened 0.3 percent to $1.6084.

Crude oil fell, poised for the longest losing streak since December, as equities slumped and an industry report showed an increase in U.S. fuel inventories. Crude oil for August delivery fell as much as $1.06, or 1.7 percent, to $61.87 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the lowest intraday price since May 26. Oil was at $62.19 a barrel at 2:51 p.m. Singapore time.

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The yen and the dollar rose against the euro on speculation European finance ministers will today reiterate the global recession is far from over, spurring demand for the relative safety of the U.S. and Japanese currencies.

The yen advanced versus all 16 of the most-traded currencies as Asian stocks declined, prompting investors to reduce holdings of higher-yielding assets. Japan’s currency approached a two-week high against the euro after Luxembourg Finance Minister Jean-Claude Juncker said at a meeting of euro- area counterparts in Brussels yesterday that "we are still in the middle" of the worldwide financial crisis.

Juncker's comments in Brussels yesterday came after the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said last month signs of a recovery in the 16-nation euro area were not clear. The OECD cut its 2009 forecast for the region’s economy to a contraction of 4.8 percent, from a decline of 4.1 percent projected in March, and said the ECB should lower its benchmark interest rate from 1 percent.

The yen rose to 132.41 per euro as of 7:42 a.m. in London from 133.34 yesterday in New York, when it advanced to 131.74, the highest since June 23. The dollar climbed to $1.3921 per euro from $1.3984, after yesterday reaching $1.3877, also the strongest since June 23. The dollar bought 95.10 yen from 95.35.

The pound declined to $1.6190 as of 7:46 a.m. in London, from $1.6286 yesterday, the first time it dropped for four consecutive days since April 10. It weakened to 85.97 pence per euro, from 85.85 pence.

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Resistance and Support, news for june 18 currency trading

Resistance & support

EURUSD GBPUSD USDJPY USDCHF 1.4090 1.6630 97.20 1.0990 1.4020 1.6510 96.40 1.0890 1.3910 1.6370 96.00 1.0830 1.3840 1.6250 95.20 1.0730 1.3740 1.6110 94.70 1.0670

Economic calendar

Date Time (GMT) Currency Impact Actual Forecast Previous Thu Jun 18 1:30am AUD RBA Monthly Bulletin 7:30am CHF Libor Rate 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% 7:30am CHF SNB Monetary Policy Assessment 7:30am CHF SNB Press Conference 7:30am CHF SNB Financial Stability Report 8:00am EUR Italian Trade Balance -0.28B -0.02B 0.08B 8:30am GBP Retail Sales m/m -0.6% 0.4% 0.9% 8:30am GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing 19.9B 18.9B 8.5B 8:30am GBP Prelim M4 Money Supply m/m 0.2% 0.7% 0.1% 10:00am GBP CBI Industrial Order Expectations -45 -56 11:00am CAD Core CPI m/m 0.1% 0.1% 11:00am CAD CPI m/m 0.4% -0.1% 12:30pm USD Unemployment Claims 608K 601K 1:30pm USD Treasury Sec Geithner Speaks 2:00pm USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index -17.6 -22.6 2:00pm USD CB Leading Index m/m 0.8% 1.0% 2:30pm USD Natural Gas Storage 104B 106B 5:30pm USD Treasury Sec Geithner Speaks 6:15pm CAD BOC Gov Carney Speaks 7:30pm CAD BOC Gov Carney Speaks 11:50pm JPY Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

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The dollar declined against higher yielding currencies as speculation the global recession is easing prompted investors to buy riskier assets.

The New Zealand and Australian dollars gained the most of the 16 most-active currencies after New Zealand's central bank left interest rates unchanged for the first time in a year and Australia reported a smaller-than-expected drop in jobs. The euro rose against the dollar on speculation European Central Bank officials will signal a reluctance to cut interest rates, maintaining the currency’s appeal. Benchmark interest rates are 3 percent in Australia and 2.5 percent in New Zealand, compared with 0.1 percent in Japan and as low as zero in the U.S., attracting investors to the South Pacific nations’ higher-yielding assets.

The euro rose against the dollar on speculation European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet will signal in a speech in Sofia tomorrow that there is no need to cut interest rates further.

The dollar dropped to $1.4015 per euro as of 8:05 a.m. in London from $1.3984 yesterday in New York. Japan's currency traded at 137.29 per euro from 137.21. It fell to 139.22 on June 5, the weakest since Oct. 15. The U.S. currency fell to 97.83 yen from 98.12 yen.

New Zealand's dollar climbed 2 percent to 63.84 U.S. cents, and advanced 1.6 percent to 62.44 yen. Australia's dollar rose 0.8 percent to 80.97 U.S. cents and gained 0.6 percent to 79.23 yen.

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The dollar fell to an eight-week low against the yen on speculation the U.S. Federal Reserve will boost purchases of assets to counter the global slump, increasing the supply of the U.S. currency.

The dollar weakened against 14 of the 16 most-traded currencies after the Fed projected a deeper recession, sapping demand for the U.S. currency as a refuge. New Zealand’s dollar rose for a fourth day after a government report showed immigration growth accelerated. The euro traded near a four- month high against the dollar before a European manufacturing and services report that may back the case for the region’s central bank to keep interest rates unchanged.

The U.S. currency declined to 94.71 yen as of 7:26 a.m. in London from 94.88 yesterday in New York. It earlier fell to 94.29, the lowest since March 20. Japan’s currency rose to 130.62 per euro from 130.77. The euro traded at $1.3789 from $1.3780 yesterday, when it reached $1.3830, the strongest level since Jan. 5.

The dollar fell as low as $1.5817 per pound, the weakest since Nov. 10, before trading at $1.5791 from $1.5755 yesterday. The New Zealand dollar rose to 60.96 U.S. cents from 60.58 cents.

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Yen and dollar advances, learn how to trade currencies and learn to trade forex

Gold may rise to a record, possibly driven higher by weakness in the dollar, should the precious metal first clearly hold above $950 an ounce. Gold, which tends to move in the opposite direction to the U.S. currency, reached a record $1,032.70 an ounce on March 17, 2008 and last rose to more than $950 an ounce on March 23. The precious metal traded today at $928.15 an ounce at 2:22 p.m. in Singapore, about 2.3 percent less than the $950 threshold.

The yen and the dollar advanced against higher-yielding currencies after economic reports showing the global recession may be prolonged spurred demand for the relative safety of the two currencies. The yen rose versus all 16 of the most-traded currencies after Japan reported that the world's second-largest economy shrank at a record pace. The euro slid against the dollar after a German report showed producer prices fell at the fastest rate in almost 22 years.

Japan's currency advanced to 130.03 per euro as of 7:48 a.m. in London, from 130.81 in New York yesterday when it fell to 131.85, the weakest level since May 13. The dollar rose to $1.3604 per euro from $1.3630. The yen climbed to 95.63 per dollar from 95.97. 

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