Monday, February 8, 2010

Forex trading US unemployment falls

US January unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 9.7% (cons. 10.0%, prev. 10.0%). However, non-farm payrolls declined by -20k in January (cons. +15k) and the December figure was substantially revised down to -150k from the earlier estimate of -85k. Average weekly hours worked, a reliable leading indicator for job creation, ticked higher to 33.3 (cons. 33.2, prev. 33.2).
No major US economic data will be released today. The highlight of the week will come on Wednesday when Fed Chairman Bernanke appears before the House Financial Services Committee to discuss how the Fed's emergency programs are to be withdrawn, and what the consequences for economic recovery might be.

Day trading system

Monday, October 12, 2009

Dollar weakness, learn to trade currency

EURUSD fantastic trade off this channel break out. Could push up to new highs then off to 51.

IF we stall here could also be double mid term top. Watch out for Bernanke and money supply comments.

Tuesday, September 29, 2009

60 min trade channel going to break on eurusd

Looking for it to break the channel here.
Nice break through here and we can be on thre road to revisit

Monday, September 28, 2009

Yen is at new highs

The yen rose to the highest level in eight months versus the dollar on speculation Japan will not intervene to stem gains in the currency and exporters repatriated profits. Japan's currency pared gains past the 90 level against the dollar after Finance Minister Hirohisa Fujii said he was misinterpreted as supporting a stronger yen.
The dollar gained versus the euro before a German report forecast to show consumer prices dropped for the first time in four months, damping demand for higher-yielding assets funded in the greenback. Losses in the euro were tempered after German Chancellor Angela Merkel said she will press ahead with tax cuts and labor market deregulation after winning re-election with enough support to govern with the pro-business Free Democrats.
he yen climbed to 89.41 per dollar as of 2:41 p.m. in Tokyo from 89.64 in New York on Sept. 25. It earlier touched 88.24, the strongest level since Jan. 23. The currency rose to 130.52 per euro from 131.70, after earlier reaching 129.83, the highest since July 14. The dollar gained to $1.4598 per euro from $1.4689.

Friday, September 25, 2009

Euro temp weakens, Economic news for currency trading Sept 27

The euro weakened vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.4625 level and was capped around the $1.4800 figure. The Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, and Swiss National Bank today announced they will extend their liquidity-providing facilities and operations through January 2010. The common currency was partially dragged lower by comments from Bank of England Governor King who said the weaker sterling has been “helpful” in reducing economic and financial imbalances. News that BoE would meet with London-based economists on Tuesday to discuss economic policies. Data released in the eurozone today saw the French number of unemployed rise 0.7% m/m to 2.553 million. Also, the German Ifo business confidence index rose to 91.3 in September from 90.5 in August, the sixth consecutive improvement but below expectations. The German economy, however, could suffer from political uncertainty, difficult credit conditions, and a weakening labour market. The ECB’s September monthly bulletin reported the EMU-16 economy is stabilizing. ECB member Quaden reported the worst of the financial crisis is over but said business may not return to normal. In U.S. news, data released in the U.S. today saw August existing home sales off 2.7% to an annualized 5.10 million rate. Weekly initial jobless claims fell to 530,000 from a revised 551,000 while continuing claims fell to 6.138 million from a revised 6.261 million. Euro bids are cited around the US$ 1.3900 figure.
¥/ CNY
The yen appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the ¥90.35 level and was supported around the ¥91.60 level. Bank of Japan announced it will extend liquidity provision measures through January 2010 to cushion money markets in concert with other central banks. Yen borrowing costs declined to a three-year low with three-month Libor at 0.34750, the lowest level since June 2006. Similarly, U.S. dollar three-month Libor printed at a record low of 0.28500. U.S. dollar rates have been below Japanese dollar rates since 24 August and that has resulted in the U.S. dollar being used as a carry trade funding currency. Data released in Japanese overnight saw the July all industry activity index climb +0.5% with industrial production up 2.1% m/m and the tertiary index up +0.6% m/m. Additionally, the August trade surplus came in stronger-than-expected at ¥187.5 billion. The Nikkei 225 stock index gained 1.67% to close at ¥10,544.22. U.S. dollar offers are cited around the ¥94.75 level. The euro moved lower vis-à-vis the yen as the single currency tested bids around the ¥133.35 level and was capped around the ¥134.65 level. The British pound moved lower vis-à-vis the yen as sterling tested bids around the ¥146.30 level while the Swiss franc moved lower vis-à-vis the yen and tested bids around the ¥88.15 level. In Chinese news, the U.S. dollar lost ground vis-à-vis the Chinese yuan as the greenback closed at CNY 6.8218 in the over-the-counter market, down from CNY 6.8256. People’s Bank of China Deputy Governor Hu yesterday reported G20 nations should consider establishing an international wealth fund to invest a portion of members’ current account surpluses. There is continued speculation among dealers that Chinese monetary authorities may allow the yuan to appreciate further vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar.

Technical Outlook at 1230 GMT (EDT + 0400)

(Bid Price) (Today’s Intraday Range)

EUR/ USD 1.4647 1.4802, 1.4627
USD/ JPY 91.24 91.62, 90.35
GBP/ USD 1.6058 1.6385, 1.6021
USD/ CHF 1.0303 1.0323, 1.0207
AUD/USD 0.8642 0.8768, 0.8619
USD/CAD 1.0907 1.0946, 1.0706
NZD/USD 0.7156 0.7269, 0.7148
EUR/ JPY 133.61 134.66, 133.33
EUR/ GBP 0.9120 0.9156, 0.8989
GBP/ JPY 146.50 149.54, 146.28
CHF/ JPY 89.51 89.04, 88.16

Support Resistance Support Resistance


L1. 1.4470 1.4915 88.60 93.30
L2. 1.4355 1.5140 87.10 95.50
L3. 1.4175 1.5360 86.10 98.85


L1. 1.6115 1.6685 1.0275 1.0580
L2. 1.5720 1.6830 1.0040 1.0695
L3. 1.5405 1.7040 0.9750 1.0885


L1. 0.8450 0.8830 1.0535 1.0945
L2. 0.8300 0.9050 1.0365 1.1125
L3. 0.8070 0.9120 1.0155 1.1355


L1. 0.6880 0.7125 131.45 135.75
L2. 0.6750 0.7260 129.75 136.90
L3. 0.6535 0.7395 127.00 138.75


L1. 0.8795 0.8995 1.5110 1.5380
L2. 0.8675 0.9105 1.4905 1.5580
L3. 0.8320 0.9225 1.4670 1.5880


L1. 146.10 152.50 86.30 88.65
L2. 142.05 157.75 85.40 90.10
L3. 135.70 161.70 81.55 91.60


Thursday, 24 September 2009
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)

N/A Japan September purchasing manager index, manufacturing (53.6)
0100 Australia August HIA new home sales (0.1% m/m)
0130 Australia Reserve Bank of Australia Financial Stability Review
0430 Japan July all industry activity index (0.1% m/m)
0700 Japan August convenience store sales (-7.5% y/y)
0800 Italy July trade balance
0800 Germany September Ifo, expectations (95.0)
0800 Germany September Ifo, business climate (90.5)
0800 Germany September Ifo, current assessment (86.1)
1230 US Weekly initial jobless claims (545,000)
1230 US Continuing jobless claims
1400 US August existing home sales (5.24 million)
1400 US August existing home sales (7.2% m/m)
1600 France August total jobseekers
2245 NZ August trade balance
2350 Japan Bank of Japan Policy Board meeting minutes
2350 Japan August corporate service prices (-3.4% y/y)

Friday, 25 September 2009
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)

N/A Germany August import price index (-0.9% m/m)
N/A Germany August import price index (-12.6% y/y)
0640 France September consumer confidence
0650 France Q2 gross domestic product (0.3% q/q)
0650 France Q2 gross domestic product (-2.6% y/y)
0800 Italy July retail sales (-0.4% m/m)
0800 Italy July retail sales (-0.8% y/y)
0800 Eurozone August M3 money supply (3.0% y/y)
0830 UK Q2 total business investment (-10.4% q/q)
0830 UK Q2 total business investment (-18.4% y/y)
0930 CH September KOF economic forecast
1230 US August durable goods orders (5.10%)
1230 US August durable goods, ex-transportation (1.10%)
1400 US September University of Michigan consumer sentiment (70.2)
1400 US August new home sales (433,000)
1400 US August new home sales (9.6% m/m)
1715 US Federal Reserve Governor Warsh speaks

US home sales falling , Japan climbing against Euro

With US existing home sales falling 2.7% versus expectations for a rise, EURUSD fell further and bids at 1.4730 ultimately gave way. Having held 1.4700 but failed to get back above 1.4725-30, EURUSD was driven down to 1.4677 as US banks sold before the fixing. With US equities ending in the red for a second day, EURUSD closed at 1.4650-55.
Japan’s currency climbed to 133.18 yen per euro as of 6:26 a.m. in London from 133.86 yen in New York yesterday, after earlier reaching 132.53 yen, the highest level since Sept. 16. It rose to 90.69 yen per dollar from 91.27 yen.
The pound was set for a third weekly loss against the euro after the Newcastle Journal reported that Bank of England Governor Mervyn King said the currency’s drop was "very helpful" in rebalancing the economy. Continued sterling selling led moves in Asia early Friday, with cable's stop-loss run below 1.6000 driving EURUSD to a 1.4623 low, before it bounced all the way back to 1.4665 as EURGBP triggered buy stops through 0.9150.

Thursday, September 24, 2009

Yen up 5/7% against dollar, FOMC maintains 0 interest rate, learn to day trade

The FOMC said it will maintain its zero interest rate policy for an 'extended period' in a statement issued after yesterday's meeting. Although the Committee recognises that the economy is likely to be weak for a time, it highlighted an increase in housing market activity and said household spending 'seems to be' stabilising. The apparent lack of conviction in the statement suggests that the Fed may be playing for time after smoothing the road for 'market forces' to support a strengthening of economic growth and agradual return to ‘higher levels of resource utilisation’.
The yen traded near a one-week high against the dollar amid speculation Japanese companies returned from a three-day holiday to repatriate funds before the end of the fiscal first half. Japan's currency has risen 5.7 percent against the dollar this quarter. A strengthening yen reduces the value of overseas sales by Japanese companies when converted into their home currency. Large manufacturers expected the yen to trade at an average of 94.85 per dollar in the 12 months to March 2010, according to the Bank of Japan's quarterly Tankan survey released July 1.
The Australian dollar advanced toward a 13- month high as the central bank said the nation's lenders are weathering the global recession.
The yen appreciated to 90.49 per dollar as of 8:10 a.m. in London, from 91.29 in New York yesterday, and traded as high as 90.44, the strongest since Sept. 16. It was at 133.54 per euro, from 134.52. The euro rose to $1.4761, after trading as high as $1.4844 yesterday, its highest level since Sept. 22, 2008.

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