Dollar weakness, learn to trade currency

EURUSD fantastic trade off this channel break out. Could push up to new highs then off to 51.

IF we stall here could also be double mid term top. Watch out for Bernanke and money supply comments.

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60 min trade channel going to break on eurusd

Looking for it to break the channel here.

Nice break through here and we can be on thre road to revisit

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Yen is at new highs

The yen rose to the highest level in eight months versus the dollar on speculation Japan will not intervene to stem gains in the currency and exporters repatriated profits. Japan's currency pared gains past the 90 level against the dollar after Finance Minister Hirohisa Fujii said he was misinterpreted as supporting a stronger yen.
The dollar gained versus the euro before a German report forecast to show consumer prices dropped for the first time in four months, damping demand for higher-yielding assets funded in the greenback. Losses in the euro were tempered after German Chancellor Angela Merkel said she will press ahead with tax cuts and labor market deregulation after winning re-election with enough support to govern with the pro-business Free Democrats.
he yen climbed to 89.41 per dollar as of 2:41 p.m. in Tokyo from 89.64 in New York on Sept. 25. It earlier touched 88.24, the strongest level since Jan. 23. The currency rose to 130.52 per euro from 131.70, after earlier reaching 129.83, the highest since July 14. The dollar gained to $1.4598 per euro from $1.4689.

Euro temp weakens, Economic news for currency trading Sept 27

€
The euro weakened vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.4625 level and was capped around the $1.4800 figure. The Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, and Swiss National Bank today announced they will extend their liquidity-providing facilities and operations through January 2010. The common currency was partially dragged lower by comments from Bank of England Governor King who said the weaker sterling has been “helpful” in reducing economic and financial imbalances. News that BoE would meet with London-based economists on Tuesday to discuss economic policies. Data released in the eurozone today saw the French number of unemployed rise 0.7% m/m to 2.553 million. Also, the German Ifo business confidence index rose to 91.3 in September from 90.5 in August, the sixth consecutive improvement but below expectations. The German economy, however, could suffer from political uncertainty, difficult credit conditions, and a weakening labour market. The ECB’s September monthly bulletin reported the EMU-16 economy is stabilizing. ECB member Quaden reported the worst of the financial crisis is over but said business may not return to normal. In U.S. news, data released in the U.S. today saw August existing home sales off 2.7% to an annualized 5.10 million rate. Weekly initial jobless claims fell to 530,000 from a revised 551,000 while continuing claims fell to 6.138 million from a revised 6.261 million. Euro bids are cited around the US$ 1.3900 figure.
¥/ CNY
The yen appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the ¥90.35 level and was supported around the ¥91.60 level. Bank of Japan announced it will extend liquidity provision measures through January 2010 to cushion money markets in concert with other central banks. Yen borrowing costs declined to a three-year low with three-month Libor at 0.34750, the lowest level since June 2006. Similarly, U.S. dollar three-month Libor printed at a record low of 0.28500. U.S. dollar rates have been below Japanese dollar rates since 24 August and that has resulted in the U.S. dollar being used as a carry trade funding currency. Data released in Japanese overnight saw the July all industry activity index climb +0.5% with industrial production up 2.1% m/m and the tertiary index up +0.6% m/m. Additionally, the August trade surplus came in stronger-than-expected at ¥187.5 billion. The Nikkei 225 stock index gained 1.67% to close at ¥10,544.22. U.S. dollar offers are cited around the ¥94.75 level. The euro moved lower vis-à-vis the yen as the single currency tested bids around the ¥133.35 level and was capped around the ¥134.65 level. The British pound moved lower vis-à-vis the yen as sterling tested bids around the ¥146.30 level while the Swiss franc moved lower vis-à-vis the yen and tested bids around the ¥88.15 level. In Chinese news, the U.S. dollar lost ground vis-à-vis the Chinese yuan as the greenback closed at CNY 6.8218 in the over-the-counter market, down from CNY 6.8256. People’s Bank of China Deputy Governor Hu yesterday reported G20 nations should consider establishing an international wealth fund to invest a portion of members’ current account surpluses. There is continued speculation among dealers that Chinese monetary authorities may allow the yuan to appreciate further vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar.



Technical Outlook at 1230 GMT (EDT + 0400)

(Bid Price) (Today’s Intraday Range)

EUR/ USD 1.4647 1.4802, 1.4627
USD/ JPY 91.24 91.62, 90.35
GBP/ USD 1.6058 1.6385, 1.6021
USD/ CHF 1.0303 1.0323, 1.0207
AUD/USD 0.8642 0.8768, 0.8619
USD/CAD 1.0907 1.0946, 1.0706
NZD/USD 0.7156 0.7269, 0.7148
EUR/ JPY 133.61 134.66, 133.33
EUR/ GBP 0.9120 0.9156, 0.8989
GBP/ JPY 146.50 149.54, 146.28
CHF/ JPY 89.51 89.04, 88.16



Support Resistance Support Resistance

EUR/ USD USD/ JPY


L1. 1.4470 1.4915 88.60 93.30
L2. 1.4355 1.5140 87.10 95.50
L3. 1.4175 1.5360 86.10 98.85

GBP/ USD USD/ CHF

L1. 1.6115 1.6685 1.0275 1.0580
L2. 1.5720 1.6830 1.0040 1.0695
L3. 1.5405 1.7040 0.9750 1.0885

AUD/ USD USD/ CAD

L1. 0.8450 0.8830 1.0535 1.0945
L2. 0.8300 0.9050 1.0365 1.1125
L3. 0.8070 0.9120 1.0155 1.1355


NZD/ USD EUR/ JPY

L1. 0.6880 0.7125 131.45 135.75
L2. 0.6750 0.7260 129.75 136.90
L3. 0.6535 0.7395 127.00 138.75

EUR/ GBP EUR/ CHF

L1. 0.8795 0.8995 1.5110 1.5380
L2. 0.8675 0.9105 1.4905 1.5580
L3. 0.8320 0.9225 1.4670 1.5880

GBP/ JPY CHF/ JPY

L1. 146.10 152.50 86.30 88.65
L2. 142.05 157.75 85.40 90.10
L3. 135.70 161.70 81.55 91.60




SCHEDULE


Thursday, 24 September 2009
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)

N/A Japan September purchasing manager index, manufacturing (53.6)
0100 Australia August HIA new home sales (0.1% m/m)
0130 Australia Reserve Bank of Australia Financial Stability Review
0430 Japan July all industry activity index (0.1% m/m)
0700 Japan August convenience store sales (-7.5% y/y)
0800 Italy July trade balance
0800 Germany September Ifo, expectations (95.0)
0800 Germany September Ifo, business climate (90.5)
0800 Germany September Ifo, current assessment (86.1)
1230 US Weekly initial jobless claims (545,000)
1230 US Continuing jobless claims
1400 US August existing home sales (5.24 million)
1400 US August existing home sales (7.2% m/m)
1600 France August total jobseekers
2245 NZ August trade balance
2350 Japan Bank of Japan Policy Board meeting minutes
2350 Japan August corporate service prices (-3.4% y/y)

Friday, 25 September 2009
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)

N/A Germany August import price index (-0.9% m/m)
N/A Germany August import price index (-12.6% y/y)
0640 France September consumer confidence
0650 France Q2 gross domestic product (0.3% q/q)
0650 France Q2 gross domestic product (-2.6% y/y)
0800 Italy July retail sales (-0.4% m/m)
0800 Italy July retail sales (-0.8% y/y)
0800 Eurozone August M3 money supply (3.0% y/y)
0830 UK Q2 total business investment (-10.4% q/q)
0830 UK Q2 total business investment (-18.4% y/y)
0930 CH September KOF economic forecast
1230 US August durable goods orders (5.10%)
1230 US August durable goods, ex-transportation (1.10%)
1400 US September University of Michigan consumer sentiment (70.2)
1400 US August new home sales (433,000)
1400 US August new home sales (9.6% m/m)
1715 US Federal Reserve Governor Warsh speaks

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US home sales falling , Japan climbing against Euro

With US existing home sales falling 2.7% versus expectations for a rise, EURUSD fell further and bids at 1.4730 ultimately gave way. Having held 1.4700 but failed to get back above 1.4725-30, EURUSD was driven down to 1.4677 as US banks sold before the fixing. With US equities ending in the red for a second day, EURUSD closed at 1.4650-55.
Japan’s currency climbed to 133.18 yen per euro as of 6:26 a.m. in London from 133.86 yen in New York yesterday, after earlier reaching 132.53 yen, the highest level since Sept. 16. It rose to 90.69 yen per dollar from 91.27 yen.
The pound was set for a third weekly loss against the euro after the Newcastle Journal reported that Bank of England Governor Mervyn King said the currency’s drop was "very helpful" in rebalancing the economy. Continued sterling selling led moves in Asia early Friday, with cable's stop-loss run below 1.6000 driving EURUSD to a 1.4623 low, before it bounced all the way back to 1.4665 as EURGBP triggered buy stops through 0.9150.

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Yen up 5/7% against dollar, FOMC maintains 0 interest rate, learn to day trade

The FOMC said it will maintain its zero interest rate policy for an 'extended period' in a statement issued after yesterday's meeting. Although the Committee recognises that the economy is likely to be weak for a time, it highlighted an increase in housing market activity and said household spending 'seems to be' stabilising. The apparent lack of conviction in the statement suggests that the Fed may be playing for time after smoothing the road for 'market forces' to support a strengthening of economic growth and agradual return to ‘higher levels of resource utilisation’.
The yen traded near a one-week high against the dollar amid speculation Japanese companies returned from a three-day holiday to repatriate funds before the end of the fiscal first half. Japan's currency has risen 5.7 percent against the dollar this quarter. A strengthening yen reduces the value of overseas sales by Japanese companies when converted into their home currency. Large manufacturers expected the yen to trade at an average of 94.85 per dollar in the 12 months to March 2010, according to the Bank of Japan's quarterly Tankan survey released July 1.
The Australian dollar advanced toward a 13- month high as the central bank said the nation's lenders are weathering the global recession.
The yen appreciated to 90.49 per dollar as of 8:10 a.m. in London, from 91.29 in New York yesterday, and traded as high as 90.44, the strongest since Sept. 16. It was at 133.54 per euro, from 134.52. The euro rose to $1.4761, after trading as high as $1.4844 yesterday, its highest level since Sept. 22, 2008.

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US $ Low and Kiwi Dollar climbs to high

The dollar traded within half a cent of a one-year low against the euro on speculation the global economic recovery is gathering strength, encouraging investors to buy higher-yielding assets.
The U.S. currency also weakened versus the yen as economists forecast the Federal Reserve will keep its benchmark interest rate between zero and 0.25 percent today and signal it intends to hold down borrowing costs.

New Zealand's dollar climbed to a 13-month high after a government report showed the economy unexpectedly grew for the first time in six quarters.
The dollar traded at $1.4793 per euro as of 8:07 a.m. in London from $1.4790 in New York yesterday, after earlier falling to $1.4842, the lowest level since Sept. 22, 2008. The U.S. currency dropped to 90.94 yen, from 91.10. The yen strengthened to 134.51 per euro, from 134.76.
New Zealand's dollar, the kiwi, rose as high as 73.12 U.S. cents, the strongest since Aug. 4, 2008, before trading up 0.8 percent at 72.45 cents after Statistics New Zealand said gross domestic product grew 0.1 percent in the three months to June 30, following a 0.8 percent drop in the first quarter. A Bloomberg News survey of economists forecast a 0.2 percent contraction.

Corn dropped as a decline in crude oil reduced the appeal of the grain, which can be processed into ethanol to stretch gasoline supplies, and on expectations that the U.S. will produce a bumper harvest. Corn for December delivery fell to $3.2325 a bushel in after-hours electronic trading on the Chicago Board of Trade at 2:04 p.m. Singapore time, after rallying 3.1 percent yesterday.





Resistance & support
EURUSD GBPUSD USDJPY USDCHF
1.4810 1.6500 92.80 1.0380
1.4770 1.6410 91.90 1.0340
1.4730 1.6340 91.00 1.0280
1.4620 1.6280 90.80 1.0230
1.4560 1.6190 90.00 1.0190



Economic calendar
Date Time
(GMT) Currency Impact Actual Forecast Previous
Wed
Sep 23 6:45am EUR
French Consumer Spending m/m -1.2% 0.3% 1.4%
6:45am EUR
French Consumer Spending m/m -1.0% 0.2% -1.2%
7:00am EUR
French Flash Manufacturing PMI 52.5 51.4 50.2
7:00am EUR
French Flash Services PMI 52.2 50.1 48.9
7:30am EUR
German Flash Manufacturing PMI 49.6 50.9 49.0
7:30am EUR
German Flash Services PMI 52.2 54.0 54.1
8:00am EUR
Flash Manufacturing PMI 49.0 49.8 47.9
8:00am EUR
Flash Services PMI 50.6 50.5 49.5
8:30am GBP
MPC Meeting Minutes 0-0-9 0-0-9 0-0-9
8:30am GBP
BBA Mortgage Approvals 38.1K 41.1K 38.2K
9:00am EUR
Industrial New Orders m/m 2.6% 2.1% 3.1%
11:35am CAD
Gov Council Member Longworth Speaks
12:10pm GBP
MPC Member Barker Speaks
1:00pm EUR
Belgium NBB Business Climate -16.2 -18.2
1:30pm USD
Treasury Sec Geithner Speaks
2:30pm USD
Crude Oil Inventories -1.4M -4.7M
6:15pm USD
FOMC Statement
6:15pm USD
Federal Funds Rate <0.25% <0.25%
10:00pm NZD
Westpac Consumer Sentiment 106.0
11:50pm JPY
Trade Balance 0.18T 0.19T

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Currency trading Sept 22 learn how to day trade

The euro moved lower vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.4610 level and was capped around the $1.4710 level. Traders will focus on some key events this week. First, the Federal Open Market Committee convenes tomorrow and Wednesday and is not expected to change interest rates at this time. Instead, Fed-watchers are interested to see if the FOMC provides any guidance as to when it may terminate some of its emergency funding programs with a particular emphasis on its programs to support the mortgage-backed securities market. The Fed is expected to provide at least some guidance about the exit strategy associated with its liquidity provision programs. The Fed is likely to acknowledge the recent improvement in U.S. economic data. It will also be interesting to see if the Fed acknowledges the recent weakness in the U.S. dollar. Second, all eyes will be on Pittsburgh where Group of Twenty officials are convening this week. Global policymakers are said to be promoting ideas for a consolidated regulatory framework in many jurisdictions including the U.S. and the eurozone. The further regulation of capital markets including the imposition of limits on the salaries of employees at financial institutions will be closely watched. Likewise, it will be interesting to see if G20 officials acknowledge the U.S. dollar’s recent weakness. Data released in the U.S. today saw August leading indicators climb 0.6%, below expectations and below the revised July print of +0.9%. Nonetheless, today’s print represented the fifth consecutive monthly improvement. Tomorrow’s U.S. data include the September Richmond Fed manufacturing index and July house prices. In other U.S. news, the Fed rejected the U.S. Treasury’s request to review its structure and governance. In eurozone news, European Central Bank policymaker Mersch reported “A low interest rate policy over a long period remains a very big danger for the banking system. This situation can’t be kept up for too long and as soon as the economy has started to recover well we will take the necessary measures to bring back a normalized rate structure. Mersch also said the economic crisis “is not over yet” and said there’s “still a whole row of risks” to banks and economies. ECB President Trichet urged G20 governments and central banks to coordinate their policies further. Euro bids are cited around the US$ 1.3900 figure.
¥/ CNY
The yen depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers around the ¥92.50 level and was supported around the ¥91.30 level. Liquidity was reduced on account of a Japanese market holiday that will keep liquidity reduced through Thursday. The yen continues to enjoy a positive interest rate differential over the U.S. dollar with the latter now acting as a funding currency given its record low levels. Three-month US$ Libor was fixed today at 0.28938 with three-month yen Libor fixed at 0.34875. Bank of Japan Governor Yamaguchi last week reported that maintaining emergency credit programs for “a long time…may hurt an autonomous recovery of market functions and invite the distortion of the allocation of resources.” He added, however, that a “positive mechanism has started to take hold in the Japanese economy.” The central bank voted to keep monetary policy unchanged last week and upgraded its assessment of the economy. New finance minister Fujii last week verbally intervened saying exchange rates “should be determined by the state of a nation’s economy.” His comments suggest the new Democratic Party of Japan government may not be inclined to sell the yen through actual intervention. The Nikkei 225 stock index on Friday lost 0.70% to close at ¥10,370.54. U.S. dollar offers are cited around the ¥94.75 level. The euro moved higher vis-à-vis the yen as the single currency tested offers around the ¥135.50 level and was supported around the ¥134.15 level. The British pound moved higher vis-à-vis the yen as sterling tested offers around the ¥149.60 level while the Swiss franc moved higher vis-à-vis the yen and tested offers around the ¥89.25 level. In Chinese news, the U.S. dollar gained ground vis-à-vis the Chinese yuan as the greenback closed at CNY 6.8299 in the over-the-counter market, up from CNY 6.8291. China may purchase some of the 403.3 metric tons of gold being offered for sale by the International Monetary Fund to diversify its reserves. People’s Bank of China reported it will adjust monetary policy at an “appropriate time.” There is speculation among dealers that Chinese monetary authorities may allow the yuan to appreciate further vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar.
₤
The British pound fell vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested bids around the US$ 1.6130 level and was capped around the $1.6265 level. Sterling remains under pressure on ongoing speculation that Lloyds Bank is facing liquidity pressures. Additionally, a Bank of England report noted concerns over U.K. debt issuance are increasing and this is also pressuring sterling. Data released in the U.K. overnight saw the September Rightmove house price index climb 0.6% m/m and decline 1.5% y/y. Minutes from the September BoE Monetary Policy Committee meeting are expected on Wednesday. Sterling faces downside risks if there was talk among policymakers that U.K. rates may need to remain lower for longer than expected. Cable bids are cited around the US$ 1.6030 level. The euro extended recent gains vis-à-vis the British pound as the single currency tested offers around the ₤0.9075 level and was supported around the ₤0.9040 level.



Technical Outlook at 1230 GMT (EDT + 0400)

(Bid Price) (Today’s Intraday Range)

EUR/ USD 1.4672 1.4712, 1.4611
USD/ JPY 92.17 92.52, 91.30
GBP/ USD 1.6197 1.6263, 1.6132
USD/ CHF 1.0333 1.0388, 1.0289
AUD/USD 0.8614 0.8682, 0.8589
USD/CAD 1.0813 1.0852, 1.0676
NZD/USD 0.7051 0.7093, 0.7015
EUR/ JPY 135.20 135.48, 134.15
EUR/ GBP 0.9051 0.9076, 0.9040
GBP/ JPY 149.34 149.60, 148.02
CHF/ JPY 89.17 89.23, 88.55



Support Resistance Support Resistance

EUR/ USD USD/ JPY


L1. 1.4470 1.4915 88.60 93.30
L2. 1.4355 1.5140 87.10 95.50
L3. 1.4175 1.5360 86.10 98.85

GBP/ USD USD/ CHF

L1. 1.6115 1.6685 1.0275 1.0580
L2. 1.5720 1.6830 1.0040 1.0695
L3. 1.5405 1.7040 0.9750 1.0885

AUD/ USD USD/ CAD

L1. 0.8450 0.8830 1.0535 1.0945
L2. 0.8300 0.9050 1.0365 1.1125
L3. 0.8070 0.9120 1.0155 1.1355


NZD/ USD EUR/ JPY

L1. 0.6880 0.7125 131.45 135.75
L2. 0.6750 0.7260 129.75 136.90
L3. 0.6535 0.7395 127.00 138.75

EUR/ GBP EUR/ CHF

L1. 0.8795 0.8995 1.5110 1.5380
L2. 0.8675 0.9105 1.4905 1.5580
L3. 0.8320 0.9225 1.4670 1.5880

GBP/ JPY CHF/ JPY

L1. 146.10 152.50 86.30 88.65
L2. 142.05 157.75 85.40 90.10
L3. 135.70 161.70 81.55 91.60




SCHEDULE

Sunday, 20 September 2009
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)

N/A Australia Q2 quarterly wage agreements (4.1%)
2230 NZ Performance of services index
2301 UK September Rightmove house prices (-2.2% m/m)
2301 UK September Rightmove house prices (-3.1% y/y)

Monday, 21 September 2009
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)

N/A UK September Nationwide house prices (1.6% m/m)
N/A UK September Nationwide house prices (-2.7% y/y)
0300 NZ August credit card spending (-2.0% y/y)
0700 CH August M3 money supply (7.7% y/y)
1230 Canada July international securities transactions (C$ 10.51 billion)
1400 US August leading indicators (0.6%)
2130 US New York Fed official Cumming speaks
2245 NZ Q2 current account balance (-8.5%)

Tuesday, 22 September 2009
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)

0200 NZ Q3 Westpac consumer confidence (106)
0500 Japan August supermarket sales (-4.8% y/y)
0545 CH September SECO economic forecasts
0615 CH August trade balance (CHF 2.35 billion)
0645 France August consumer spending (1.2% y/y)
0900 Italy Q2 unemployment rate
1230 Canada July retail sales (1.0% m/m)
1230 Canada July retail sales, ex-autos (1.0% m/m)
1400 US September Richmond Fed manufacturing index (14)
1400 US July house price index (0.5% m/m)
2245 NZ Q2 gross domestic product (-1.0% q/q)
2245 NZ Q2 gross domestic product (-2.7% y/y)

Wednesday, 23 September 2009
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)

N/A Japan September small business confidence (41.8)
0100 Australia September DEWR skilled vacancies (1.0% m/m)
0645 France August consumer spending (1.4% m/m)
0645 France August consumer spending (1.2% y/y)
0650 France September business confidence (78)
0700 France September purchasing manager index, manufacturing (50.8)
0700 France September purchasing manager index, services (49.3)
0730 Germany September purchasing manager index, manufacturing (49.2)
0730 Germany September purchasing manager index, services (53.8)
0800 Eurozone September purchasing manager index, manufacturing (48.2)
0800 Eurozone September purchasing manager index, services (49.9)
0800 Eurozone September purchasing manager index, composite (50.4)
0830 UK Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee meeting minutes
0830 UK August BBA loans for house purchase
0900 Eurozone July industrial new orders (3.1% m/m)
0900 Eurozone July industrial new orders (-25.1% y/y)
1100 US MBA mortgage applications
1815 US Federal Open Market Committee interest rate decision
2350 Japan August merchandise trade balance (¥377.9 billion)

Thursday, 24 September 2009
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)

N/A Japan September purchasing manager index, manufacturing (53.6)
0100 Australia August HIA new home sales (0.1% m/m)
0130 Australia Reserve Bank of Australia Financial Stability Review
0430 Japan July all industry activity index (0.1% m/m)
0700 Japan August convenience store sales (-7.5% y/y)
0800 Italy July trade balance
0800 Germany September Ifo, expectations (95.0)
0800 Germany September Ifo, business climate (90.5)
0800 Germany September Ifo, current assessment (86.1)
1230 US Weekly initial jobless claims (545,000)
1230 US Continuing jobless claims
1400 US August existing home sales (5.24 million)
1400 US August existing home sales (7.2% m/m)
1600 France August total jobseekers
2245 NZ August trade balance
2350 Japan Bank of Japan Policy Board meeting minutes
2350 Japan August corporate service prices (-3.4% y/y)

Friday, 25 September 2009
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)

N/A Germany August import price index (-0.9% m/m)
N/A Germany August import price index (-12.6% y/y)
0640 France September consumer confidence
0650 France Q2 gross domestic product (0.3% q/q)
0650 France Q2 gross domestic product (-2.6% y/y)
0800 Italy July retail sales (-0.4% m/m)
0800 Italy July retail sales (-0.8% y/y)
0800 Eurozone August M3 money supply (3.0% y/y)
0830 UK Q2 total business investment (-10.4% q/q)
0830 UK Q2 total business investment (-18.4% y/y)
0930 CH September KOF economic forecast
1230 US August durable goods orders (5.10%)
1230 US August durable goods, ex-transportation (1.10%)
1400 US September University of Michigan consumer sentiment (70.2)
1400 US August new home sales (433,000)
1400 US August new home sales (9.6% m/m)
1715 US Federal Reserve Governor Warsh speaks

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Dollar up on Yen, two week high on Sterling

The dollar rose to a one-week high against the yen and climbed versus the euro on speculation U.S. policy makers will this week signal they may withdraw economic stimulus measures, boosting the appeal of the nation’s assets.
The dollar advanced to a two-week high against the pound and strengthened versus 13 of the 16 major currencies before a report that economists said will show an index of U.S. leading indicators gained for a fifth month, backing the case for the Federal Reserve to wean the economy off support.
The dollar climbed to 92.05 yen as of 9:30 a.m. in London, from 91.29 yen in New York on Sept. 18, after earlier reaching 92.19 yen, the highest level since Sept. 10. It strengthened to $1.4662 per euro, from $1.4712. The U.S. currency advanced to $1.6186 versus the pound, from $1.6271, after earlier touching $1.6135, the most since Sept. 2.
The yen fell to as low as 135.18 per euro, the weakest level since Aug. 25, before trading at 134.90, from 134.33 last week. Japan’s currency declined 0.3 percent to 79.38 versus Australia’s dollar.
Crude oil fell for a third day in New York as a stronger U.S. dollar and slipping equity markets weakened investor demand for crude. A stronger U.S. currency diminishes the appeal of dollar-priced commodities that can be used to hedge against inflation. Traders are paying more than ever in the options market to protect against a steeper plunge in crude prices. Crude oil for October delivery fell as much as $1.01, or 1.5 percent, to $70.93 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was at $71.03 at 9:42 a.m. in London.

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GBP takes a hit from the dollar, learn to trade currency.

The euro ceded sone gains vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.4645 level and was capped around the $1.4745 level. The common currency failed to establish another multi-month high again today for the first time since 4 September. The greenback moved higher at the expense of European currencies on speculation that U.K. banking giant Lloyds lacks capital. Three-month U.S. dollar interbank lending rates fell to a record low of 0.289% today meaning Libor is now lower than the yen’s and Swiss franc’s Libor rates, rendering the U.S. dollar a funding currency for carry trades. Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke’s renomination was made official today by the Obama administration. The Fed is currently devising plans to limit bank employees’ pay in an attempt to discourage excessive risk-taking. Data to be released in the U.S. next week include August leading indicators, the September Richmond Fed manufacturing index, and July house prices. In eurozone news, the EMU-16 July current account moved into surplus at €6.6 billion for the for the first time since February 2008, up from June’s revised deficit of €4.3 billion. Also, German producer price inflation rose 0.5% m/m and fell 6.9% y/y with the ex-energy component up 0.3% m/m and off 3.4% y/y. Euro bids are cited around the US$ 1.3900 figure.
¥/ CNY
The yen depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers around the ¥91.55 level and was supported around the ¥90.90 level. Bank of Japan Governor Yamaguchi reported that maintaining emergency credit programs for “a long time…may hurt an autonomous recovery of market functions and invite the distortion of the allocation of resources.” He added, however, that a “positive mechanism has started to take hold in the Japanese economy.” The central bank voted to keep monetary policy unchanged last night and upgraded its assessment of the economy. New finance minister Fujii verbally intervened saying exchange rates “should be determined by the state of a nation’s economy.” His comments suggest the new Democratic Party of Japan government may not be inclined to sell the yen through actual intervention. In contrast, former finance minister Yosano said his government had “unshakable” support for the U.S.’s strong dollar policy. The Japanese government has not officially intervened in the markets since March 2004. As expected, Bank of Japan yesterday upgraded its assessment of the Japanese economy and noted the economy is “showing signs of recovery.” The Nikkei 225 stock index lost 0.70% to close at ¥10,370.54. U.S. dollar offers are cited around the ¥94.75 level. The euro moved higher vis-à-vis the yen as the single currency tested offers around the ¥134.45 level and was supported around the ¥133.70 level. The British pound moved lower vis-à-vis the yen as sterling tested bids around the ¥148.25 level while the Swiss franc moved higher vis-à-vis the yen and tested offers around the ¥88.80 level. In Chinese news, the U.S. dollar gained ground vis-à-vis the Chinese yuan as the greenback closed at CNY 6.8291 in the over-the-counter market, up from CNY 6.8200. This week’s U.S. TICS investment flows data revealed China was a net buyer of U.S. government assets last month. People’s Bank of China reported it has kept the yuan stable vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar to promote regional stability. PBoC also reported “the Australian dollar is a shadow currency of the yuan.”
₤
The British pound fell sharply vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested bids around the US$ 1.6230 level and was capped around the $1.6455 level. Concerns that U.K. banking giant Lloyds may be experiencing a liquidity shortfall weighed heavily on sterling. Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Miles was quoted as saying “We may get a couple of quarters pretty soon of very small increases in GDP. If you take that technical definition, we might be out of the recession in six or nine months.” BoE also reported U.K. lenders are not seeing any significant increase in demand for new business loans. Data released in the U.K. today saw CML August average gross mortgage lending off 13% at ₤12.6 billion. Prime Minister Brown today called for the immediate establishment of crisis management groups to manage troubles at multinational banks. Group of Twenty officials convene in Pittsburgh next week. Other data released in the U.K. today saw the M4 money supply increase 0.1% m/m and 12.6% y/y while August public sector net borrowing improved to ₤16.1 billion from ₤8 billion in July. Cable bids are cited around the US$ 1.6030 level. The euro extended recent gains vis-à-vis the British pound as the single currency tested offers around the ₤0.9055 level and was supported around the ₤0.8955 level.

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Dollar index reaches twelve month low. Learn to trade currencies.

The Dollar Index reached a 12-month low as the economic reports boosted demand for higher-yielding currencies and Asian stocks extended a global rally. The dollar slid to a one-year low against the euro before reports that may show Europe's trade surplus is growing and the U.S. housing market is improving.
The yen fell against 13 of the 16 most-active currencies as dollar-borrowing costs at a record low helped Japanese investors buy more overseas assets. It also weakened after data showed Japanese purchases of foreign bonds reached a four-year high.
The Dollar Index, which tracks the U.S. currency against the euro, yen, pound, Canadian dollar, Swiss franc and Swedish krona, sank to 76.067 today, the lowest level since Sept. 23, 2008.
The dollar traded at $1.4743 per euro at 7:30 a.m. in London from $1.4709 yesterday in New York. It earlier reached $1.4767, the weakest level since Sept. 25, 2008. The yen was at 90.95 per dollar from 90.93 yesterday, when it hit 90.13, the strongest level since Feb. 12. Japan’s currency declined to 134.13 per euro from 133.78.
Australia's currency rose to 87.74 U.S. cents from 87.35 cents yesterday, after earlier touching 87.75 cents, the most since Aug. 22, 2008. New Zealand’s dollar was at 71.56 U.S. cents from 71.41 cents in New York. It earlier reached 71.58 cents, also the strongest since Aug. 22, 2008.

Euro strengthens and dollar lower learn to trade currency sept 3

The euro moved higher vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.4295 level and was supported around the $1.4190 level. The common currency retraced some of yesterday’s losses as U.S. economic data were generally weaker-than-expected. First, it was reported that MBA mortgage appications were off 2.2% in the latest week, down from the prior reading of +7.5%. Second, August Challenger job cuts were off 13.8% y/y, down from the prior reading of -5.7%. Third, the August ADP employment report evidenced a 298,000 contraction in private sector jobs, worse than forecast but better than July’s revised reading of -360,000. Fourth, July factory orders printed at +1.3%, below estimates but above the revised June print of +0.9%. Fifth, Q2 unit labour costs were off 5.9%, down from the preliminary reading of -5.8%. Sixth, it was reported that Q2 non-farm productivity grew a healthy 6.6%, up from the prior reading of 6.4%. While productivity growth is generally seen as a long-term benefit to the economy, it is also coincident with a decrease in payrolls and that means companies are accomplishing more with fewer workers. Seventh, August personal bankruptices were up 24% y/y. Minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee’s interest rate deliberations on 12 August were released today and they did not offer much guidance about the Fed’s plans to maintain significant amounts of liquidity in the banking system to support the economy. In eurozone news, the German finance ministry reported the state of the economy has “stabilized” following a meeting of Ecofin finance ministers in Brussels. The hot button in the eurozone and U.K. now is a plan to limit bankers’ bonuses. Data released in the eurozone today saw EMU-16 industrial producer prices register their sharpest annual decline in more than 27 years, off 0.8% m/m and 8.5% y/y. Also, EMU-16 Q2 GDP was off 0.1% q/q and 4.7% y/y. Euro bids are cited around the US$ 1.3900 figure.


¥/ CNY
The yen appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the ¥92.10 level and was capped around the ¥93.05 level. The pair reached a seven-week low as traders reacted to a worse-than-expected U.S. private sector jobs report. Risk aversion remains strong with the VIX index – a measure of stock market volatility – at its highest level since 10 July. Bank of Japan Governor will attend the Group of Twenty meeting in London this week followed by the Bank for International Settlements meeting in Basel. Democratic Party of Japan legislator Kohei Otsuka said the new DPJ government “won’t meddle” in the central bank’s monetary policy and market operations and added the new government will “respond appropriately” to excessive currency moves. Data released in Japan overnight saw the August monetary base climb 6.1% y/y. The Nikkei 225 stock lost 2.02% to close at ¥10,280.46. U.S. dollar offers are cited around the ¥94.75 level. The euro moved lower vis-à-vis the yen as the single currency tested bids around the ¥131.00 figure and was capped around the ¥132.50 level. The British pound moved lower vis-à-vis the yen as sterling tested bids around the ¥149.00 figure while the Swiss franc moved lower vis-à-vis the yen and tested bids around the ¥86.40 level. In Chinese news, the U.S. dollar gained ground vis-à-vis the Chinese yuan as the greenback closed at CNY 6.8273 in the over-the-counter market, up from CNY 6.8257. China announced today that it plans to purchase US$ 50 billion in International Monetary Funds bonds. Chinese benchmark money rates rose by the most in one month on speculation that demand for capital will increase ahead of Metallurgical Corp. of China Ltd’s first share issuance next week. Data released in China yesterday saw the August Purchasing Managers’ Index improve to 54. China is experiencing its worst export slump in more than two decades and some economists are predicting China’s US$585 billion stimulus could lead to a surge in Chinese imports in the fourth quarter.

Technical Outlook at 1230 GMT (EDT + 0400)

(Bid Price) (Today’s Intraday Range)

EUR/ USD 1.4285 1.4294, 1.4190
USD/ JPY 92.10 93.07, 92.09
GBP/ USD 1.6288 1.6299, 1.6113
USD/ CHF 1.0591 1.0685, 1.0580
AUD/USD 0.8368 0.8372, 0.8239
USD/CAD 1.1031 1.1101, 1.1005
NZD/USD 0.6742 0.6776, 0.6683
EUR/ JPY 131.62 132.50, 131.01
EUR/ GBP 0.8771 0.8820, 0.8747
GBP/ JPY 150.05 150.55, 149.01
CHF/ JPY 86.96 87.35, 86.41


Support Resistance Support Resistance

EUR/ USD USD/ JPY


L1. 1.3780 1.4295 90.05 98.85
L2. 1.3605 1.4630 88.60 101.65
L3. 1.3400 1.5105 87.10 105.05

GBP/ USD USD/ CHF

L1. 1.5845 1.6495 1.0510 1.1165
L2. 1.5690 1.6740 1.0275 1.1270
L3. 1.5440 1.6830 0.9750 1.1555

AUD/ USD USD/ CAD

L1. 0.7715 0.8250 1.1340 1.1920
L2. 0.7440 0.8555 1.1130 1.2190
L3. 0.7165 0.9050 1.0725 1.2520


NZD/ USD EUR/ JPY

L1. 0.6190 0.6665 125.65 134.50
L2. 0.6020 0.6945 121.70 139.80
L3. 0.5655 0.7760 118.50 141.50

EUR/ GBP EUR/ CHF

L1. 0.8320 0.8770 1.4905 1.5380
L2. 0.7870 0.9080 1.4670 1.5580
L3. 0.7590 0.9355 1.4420 1.5880

GBP/ JPY CHF/ JPY

L1. 146.10 157.75 81.55 93.55
L2. 142.05 160.30 79.20 97.90
L3. 135.70 167.30 75.40 105.05




SCHEDULE

Wednesday, 2 September 2009
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)

0130 Australia Q2 GDP growth (0.4% q/q)
0130 Australia Q2 GDP growth (0.4% y/y)
0830 UK August PMI, construction
0900 Eurozone Q2 gross domestic product (-0.1% q/q)
0900 Eurozone Q2 gross domestic product (-4.6% y/y)
0900 Eurozone July producer price index (0.3% m/m)
1100 US MBA mortgage applications (7.5%)
1130 US August Challenger job cuts (-5.7% y/y)
1215 US August ADP employment change (-371,000)
1230 US Q2 non-farm productivity (6.4%)
1230 US Q2 unit labour costs (-5.8%)
1400 US July factory orders (0.4%)
1800 US Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes
2330 Australia August performance of services index (44.1)

Thursday, 3 September 2009
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)

0130 Australia July trade balance (-A$ 441 million)
0300 NZ August ANZ commodity prices (1.0%)
0645 France Q2 ILO unemployment rate (9.1%)
0745 Italy August PMI, services (44.5)
0750 France August PMI, services (48.9)
0755 Germany August PMI, services (54.1)
0800 Eurozone August PMI, services (49.5)
0800 Eurozone August PMI, composite (50.0)
0830 UK August PMI, services (53.2)
0900 Eurozone July retail sales (-0.2% m/m)
0900 Eurozone July retail sales (-2.4% y/y)
1145 Eurozone European Central Bank interest rate decision
1230 US Weekly initial jobless claims (570,000)
1230 US Continuing jobless claims (6.133 million)
1400 US August ISM, non-manufacturing (46.4)
1500 US August ICSC chain store sales (-5.0% y/y)
2350 Japan Q2 capital spending (-25.3%)

Friday, 4 September 2009
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)

0715 CH August consumer price index (-1.2% y/y)
0715 CH August consumer price index (-0.7% m/m)
0800 Italy June trade balance
0945 Eurozone European Commission economic forecasts
1100 Canada August net change in employment (-44,500)
1100 Canada August unemployment rate (8.6%)
1230 US August non-farm payrolls, net change (-247,000)
1230 US August unemployment rate (9.4%)
1230 US August average weekly hours (33.1)
1230 US August average hourly earnings (0.2% m/m)
1230 US August average hourly earnings (2.5% y/y)
1400 Canada August Ivey, PMI (51.8)
1600 US G20 central bankers and finance ministers meet

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Yen is moving up as US equities are showing weakness. Learn to trade forex, online forex course.

The euro approached a three-week high against the dollar after a German report showed retail sales increased for the first time in three months, adding to signs the 16-nation region is emerging from recession. The euro gained for the first time in six days versus the yen as the Federal Statistics Office in Wiesbaden said sales, adjusted for inflation and seasonal swings, rose 0.7 percent in July after a 1.3 percent drop in June.

Furthermore, European Central Bank Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny said yesterday he does not expect a double-dip recession in the euro region as long as policy makers do not hurry to remove emergency stimulus measures.

The yen fell against 12 of 16 major currencies after a Chinese report showed manufacturing expanded at the fastest pace in 16 months, spurring demand for emerging-market assets.

Europe's currency rose to $1.4361 as of 7:39 a.m. in London from $1.4334 in New York yesterday. It touched $1.4406 on Aug. 27, the strongest level since Aug. 7. The euro climbed to 133.66 yen from 133.48 yen. The dollar was at 93.08 yen from 93.12 yen.

Crude oil rose above $70 a barrel, reversing earlier losses, after a report showed manufacturing in China expanded in August, easing concern of an economic slump in the world's second-largest energy user. Crude oil for October delivery rose as much as 47 cents, or 0.7 percent, to $70.43 a barrel in after-hours electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was at $70.32 at 2:45 p.m. in Singapore. Futures earlier fell as much as 0.6 percent to $69.55.

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Euro is moving up. News and currency levels Sept. 1

The euro moved higher vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.4365 level and was supported around the $1.4255 level. The European Central Bank convenes on Thursday and is not expected to change monetary policy at that meeting. The ECB today released a report that notes there is systemic risk in the credit default swaps market because the ten most active counterparties account for up to 72% of default swap exposure surveyed by lenders. Data released in the eurozone today saw the August consumer price index improve to -0.2% from July’s -0.7% decline. The decrease in disinflationary pressures suggests inflation may increase in the coming months. Recent economic activity in the eurozone has been on the upswing but there is a sizable chance the recent economic improvement could falter. French finance minister Lagarde was on the wire today saying the economies of the eurozone are stabilizing. In U.S. news, data released in the U.S. today saw the August Chicago PMI index print at 50.0, up from the prior reading of 43.4. Also, the New York NAPM activity improved for the first time in three months in August. Recent economic data in the U.S. have been on the upswing and dealers are interested to see if recent housing and and other economic data can continue the uptrend. Euro bids are cited around the US$ 1.3900 figure.
¥/ CNY
The yen appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the ¥92.55 level and was capped around the ¥93.55 level. As expected, the Democratic Party of Japan won a landslide victory in yesterday’s general election over the long-incumbent Liberal Democratic Party of Japan. The DJP won 308 seats in the lower house of parliament and the LDP’s representation fell to 119 from 300. Traders are carefully assessing the election results to determine how well the DPJ will be able to control spending and manage the government. There is widespread speculation the DPJ will attempt to inflate public spending through new Japanese government bond issuance, possibly increasing social spending. There is also skepticism that the yen’s post-electoral gains will be sustainable. Some believe former Ministry of Finance official “Mr Yen” Sakakibara will get a portfolio in the new government. Data released in Japan overnight saw July construction orders off 42.8% y/y to ¥660.9 billion while July overall housing starts were off 32.1% y/y to 65,974. Other data released tonight saw July wages decline 4.8% y/y while July overall retail sales were off 2.5% y/y. Additionally, July industrial output was up 1.9% m/m. The Nikkei 225 stock index lost 0.40% to close at ¥10,492.53. The euro moved lower vis-à-vis the yen as the single currency tested bids around the ¥132.15 level and was capped around the ¥133.85 level. The British pound moved lower vis-à-vis the yen as sterling tested bids around the ¥132.15 level while the Swiss franc moved lower vis-à-vis the yen and tested bids around the ¥87.20 level. In Chinese news, the U.S. dollar gained ground vis-à-vis the Chinese yuan as the greenback closed at CNY 6.8290 in the over-the-counter market, up from CNY 6.8256. Chinese equities were off more than 6% today and closed at levels not seen since May. It was reported that new yuan loans made by Chinese lenders in August were likely to fall below ¥300 billion from ¥356 billion in July and ¥1.53 trillion in June.
₤
The British pound moved higher vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested offers around the US$ 1.6300 figure and was supported around the $1.6180 level. Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Besley reported he sees economic growth returning by the end of the year during a period of “recuperation and recovery.” He added he sees “some sort of growth” in 2009 and 2010. Data released in the U.K. today saw August house prices rise 0.1% m/m, the first rise since July 2007, and were off 6.7% y/y. Cable bids are cited around the US$ 1.6030 level. The euro moved higher vis-à-vis the British pound as the single currency tested offers around the ₤0.8825 level and was supported around the ₤0.8775 level.
Technical Outlook at 1230 GMT (EDT + 0400)

(Bid Price) (Today’s Intraday Range)

EUR/ USD 1.4288 1.4315, 1.4255
USD/ JPY 92.94 93.55, 92.54
GBP/ USD 1.6225 1.6300, 1.6181
USD/ CHF 1.0614 1.0634, 1.0584
AUD/USD 0.8363 0.8441, 0.8338
USD/CAD 1.1055 1.1090, 1.0885
NZD/USD 0.6806 0.6855, 0.6791
EUR/ JPY 132.76 133.84, 132.13
EUR/ GBP 0.8803 0.8824, 0.8776
GBP/ JPY 150.80 152.16, 150.03
CHF/ JPY 87.49 88.23, 87.19


Support Resistance Support Resistance

EUR/ USD USD/ JPY


L1. 1.3780 1.4295 90.05 98.85
L2. 1.3605 1.4630 88.60 101.65
L3. 1.3400 1.5105 87.10 105.05

GBP/ USD USD/ CHF

L1. 1.5845 1.6495 1.0510 1.1165
L2. 1.5690 1.6740 1.0275 1.1270
L3. 1.5440 1.6830 0.9750 1.1555

AUD/ USD USD/ CAD

L1. 0.7715 0.8250 1.1340 1.1920
L2. 0.7440 0.8555 1.1130 1.2190
L3. 0.7165 0.9050 1.0725 1.2520


NZD/ USD EUR/ JPY

L1. 0.6190 0.6665 125.65 134.50
L2. 0.6020 0.6945 121.70 139.80
L3. 0.5655 0.7760 118.50 141.50

EUR/ GBP EUR/ CHF

L1. 0.8320 0.8770 1.4905 1.5380
L2. 0.7870 0.9080 1.4670 1.5580
L3. 0.7590 0.9355 1.4420 1.5880

GBP/ JPY CHF/ JPY

L1. 146.10 157.75 81.55 93.55
L2. 142.05 160.30 79.20 97.90
L3. 135.70 167.30 75.40 105.05




SCHEDULE


Sunday, 30 August 2009
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)

2301 UK August Hometrack housing survey (0.0% m/m)
2301 UK August Hometrack housing survey (-7.7% y/y)
2315 Japan August PMI, manufacturing (50.4)
2350 Japan July industrial production (2.3% m/m)
2350 Japan July industrial production (-23.5% y/y)
2350 Japan July large retailers’ sales (-6.8%)
2350 Japan July retail trade (-0.2% m/m)
2350 Japan July retail trade (-2.9% y/y)

Monday, 31 August 2009
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)

0030 Australia August TD Securities inflation (0.9% m/m)
0030 Australia August TD Securities inflation (1.9% y/y)
0100 Australia July new home sales (0.5% m/m)
0130 Australia Q2 inventories (-1.2%)
0130 Australia July private sector credit growth (0.1% m/m)
0130 Australia July private sector credit growth (3.4% y/y)
0130 Japan July labour cash earnings (-7.0% y/y)
0300 NZ August NBNZ business confidence (18.7)
0500 Japan July housing starts (-32.4% y/y)
0500 Japan July housing starts, annualized (749,000)
0500 Japan July construction orders (-28.0% y/y)
0530 Japan Bank of Japan Governor Shirakawa speaks
0800 Italy June retail sales
0900 Italy August consumer price index
0900 Eurozone August CPI, estimate (-0.7% y/y)
1230 Canada Q2 GDP, annualized (-5.4% q/q)
1230 Canada June GDP (-0.5% m/m)
1345 US August Chicago PMI (43.4)
2330 Australia August PMI, manufacturing (44.5)

Tuesday, 1 September 2009
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)

0130 Australia Q2 current account balance (-A$ 4.614 billion)
0130 Australia July building approvals (9.3% m/m)
0130 Australia July building approvals (-14.3% y/y)
0430 Australia Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate decision
0545 CH Q2 gross domestic product (-0.80% q/q)
0545 CH Q2 gross domestic product (-2.4% y/y)
0730 Italy August business confidence
0730 Italy August services survey
0730 CH August PMI, manufacturing (44.3)
0745 Italy August PMI, manufacturing (45.4)
0750 France August PMI, manufacturing (50.2)
0755 Germany August PMI, manufacturing (49.0)
0755 Germany August unemployment, change (-6,000)
0755 Germany August unemployment (8.3%)
0800 Eurozone August PMI, manufacturing (47.9)
0830 UK July mortgage approvals (47,600)
0830 UK July net consumer credit (₤0.1 billion)
0830 UK July net lending secured on dwellings (₤0.3 billion)
0830 UK August PMI, manufacturing (50.8)
0830 UK July M4 money supply (1.0% m/m)
0830 UK July M4 money supply (13.6% y/y)
0900 Eurozone July unemployment rate (9.4%)
0900 Eurozone July producer price index (-6.6% y/y)
1400 US August ISM manufacturing (48.9)
1400 US August ISM, prices paid (55.0)
1400 US July pending home sales (3.6% m/m)
1400 US July pending home sales (9.2% y/y)
1400 US July construction spending (0.3% m/m)
2350 Japan August monetary base (6.1% y/y)

Wednesday, 2 September 2009
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)

0130 Australia Q2 GDP growth (0.4% q/q)
0130 Australia Q2 GDP growth (0.4% y/y)
0830 UK August PMI, construction
0900 Eurozone Q2 gross domestic product (-0.1% q/q)
0900 Eurozone Q2 gross domestic product (-4.6% y/y)
0900 Eurozone July producer price index (0.3% m/m)
1100 US MBA mortgage applications (7.5%)
1130 US August Challenger job cuts (-5.7% y/y)
1215 US August ADP employment change (-371,000)
1230 US Q2 non-farm productivity (6.4%)
1230 US Q2 unit labour costs (-5.8%)
1400 US July factory orders (0.4%)
1800 US Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes
2330 Australia August performance of services index (44.1)

Thursday, 3 September 2009
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)

0130 Australia July trade balance (-A$ 441 million)
0300 NZ August ANZ commodity prices (1.0%)
0645 France Q2 ILO unemployment rate (9.1%)
0745 Italy August PMI, services (44.5)
0750 France August PMI, services (48.9)
0755 Germany August PMI, services (54.1)
0800 Eurozone August PMI, services (49.5)
0800 Eurozone August PMI, composite (50.0)
0830 UK August PMI, services (53.2)
0900 Eurozone July retail sales (-0.2% m/m)
0900 Eurozone July retail sales (-2.4% y/y)
1145 Eurozone European Central Bank interest rate decision
1230 US Weekly initial jobless claims (570,000)
1230 US Continuing jobless claims (6.133 million)
1400 US August ISM, non-manufacturing (46.4)
1500 US August ICSC chain store sales (-5.0% y/y)
2350 Japan Q2 capital spending (-25.3%)

Friday, 4 September 2009
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)

0715 CH August consumer price index (-1.2% y/y)
0715 CH August consumer price index (-0.7% m/m)
0800 Italy June trade balance
0945 Eurozone European Commission economic forecasts
1100 Canada August net change in employment (-44,500)
1100 Canada August unemployment rate (8.6%)
1230 US August non-farm payrolls, net change (-247,000)
1230 US August unemployment rate (9.4%)
1230 US August average weekly hours (33.1)
1230 US August average hourly earnings (0.2% m/m)
1230 US August average hourly earnings (2.5% y/y)
1400 Canada August Ivey, PMI (51.8)
1600 US G20 central bankers and finance ministers meet

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Currency trading Euro moved lower Aug 29

The euro moved lower vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.4320 level and was capped around the $1.4390 level. Data released in the U.S. today saw July personal income growth at 0.0%, up from June’s revised -1.1% decline. July personal spending printed at +0.2%, down from June’s revised print of +0.6%. Also, the July personal consumption expenditures deflator was off 0.8% y/y, worse than the 0.4% June reading. At the core level, the July core rate up 0.1% m/m and 1.4% y/y. Finally, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment indicator came in at 65.7, above the prior mid-August reading of 63.2 but below the July reading of 66.0. The common currency failed to sustain its gains through the North American session as U.S. equity prices retreated in the session. St. Louis Fed President Bullard was on the wires earlier and dovishly said the Fed needs to see much more “convincing” economic data before contemplating an increase in rates. In eurozone news, the European Commissions’s economic sentiment indicator improved to 80.6 from a reading of 76 in July. Many economists believe the eurozone economy will expand around 0.5% q/q in the third quarter. Bundesbank reported German banks expect a modest increase in lending volumes in the second half of 2009 and in 2010, corroborating the central bank’s assessment there is no credit crunch in the eurozone’s largest economy. German Chancellor Merkel today reported the German economy might contract 5% or 6% in 2009. Euro bids are cited around the US$ 1.3900 figure.
¥/ CNY
The yen appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the ¥93.40 level and was capped around the ¥94.05 level. All eyes are focused on this weekend’s general election in Japan where the long-incumbent Liberal Democratic Party looks poised to lose its stronghold on power to the Democratic Party of Japan. Some Japan-watchers believe this will result in increased Japanese government bond issuance to finance the expected increase in public works spending. It is unclear how a DPJ victory would impact the yen. Japan is expected to battle deflation through early 2012 and will need all the help it can get from its slumping export sector through a weaker yen. Many data were released in Japan overnight. First, the July unemployment rate rose to 5.7% from 5.4 in June, the largest print since World War II and significantly above expectations. Second, the July nationwide consumer price index was off 0.3% m/m and off 2.2% y/y with the core rate off 0.2% m/m and 2.2% y/y. The Tokyo-area August consumer price index was up +0.3% m/m and +0.1% y/y with the core component flat m/m and off 0.2% y/y. Other data saw July all household spending off 2.0% y/y while the trade surplus for the first ten days in August printed at ¥48.08 billion, off 69.2% y/y. The Nikkei 225 stock index climbed 0.57% to close at ¥10,534.14. U.S. dollar offers are cited around the ¥104.15 level. The euro moved higher vis-à-vis the yen as the single currency tested offers around the ¥135.00 figure and was supported around the ¥134.00 figure. The British pound moved higher vis-à-vis the yen as sterling tested offers around the ¥153.60 level while the Swiss franc moved higher vis-à-vis the yen and tested offers around the ¥88.90 level. In Chinese news, the U.S. dollar lost ground vis-à-vis the Chinese yuan as the greenback closed at CNY 6.8256 in the over-the-counter market, down from CNY 6.8273. Chinese Premier Wen this week said the markets need to avoid being “blindly optimistic” about the global economic recovery and added China must maintain its “moderately loose” monetary policy and “active” fiscal policy. PBoC has reported it will ensure “reasonable and ample” liquidity.




Technical Outlook at 1230 GMT (EDT + 0400)

(Bid Price) (Today’s Intraday Range)

EUR/ USD 1.4371 1.4388, 1.4324
USD/ JPY 93.60 94.06, 93.40
GBP/ USD 1.6305 1.6380, 1.6260
USD/ CHF 1.0561 1.0617, 1.0538
AUD/USD 0.8443 0.8469, 0.8375
USD/CAD 1.0831 1.0893, 1.0790
NZD/USD 0.6867 0.6892, 0.6840
EUR/ JPY 134.47 135.00, 134.03
EUR/ GBP 0.8813 0.8829, 0.8774
GBP/ JPY 152.54 153.61, 151.96
CHF/ JPY 88.58 88.91, 88.20


Support Resistance Support Resistance

EUR/ USD USD/ JPY


L1. 1.3780 1.4295 90.05 98.85
L2. 1.3605 1.4630 88.60 101.65
L3. 1.3400 1.5105 87.10 105.05

GBP/ USD USD/ CHF

L1. 1.5845 1.6495 1.0510 1.1165
L2. 1.5690 1.6740 1.0275 1.1270
L3. 1.5440 1.6830 0.9750 1.1555

AUD/ USD USD/ CAD

L1. 0.7715 0.8250 1.1340 1.1920
L2. 0.7440 0.8555 1.1130 1.2190
L3. 0.7165 0.9050 1.0725 1.2520


NZD/ USD EUR/ JPY

L1. 0.6190 0.6665 125.65 134.50
L2. 0.6020 0.6945 121.70 139.80
L3. 0.5655 0.7760 118.50 141.50

EUR/ GBP EUR/ CHF

L1. 0.8320 0.8770 1.4905 1.5380
L2. 0.7870 0.9080 1.4670 1.5580
L3. 0.7590 0.9355 1.4420 1.5880

GBP/ JPY CHF/ JPY

L1. 146.10 157.75 81.55 93.55
L2. 142.05 160.30 79.20 97.90
L3. 135.70 167.30 75.40 105.05




SCHEDULE


Wednesday, 26 August 2009
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)

0030 Australia Q2 construction work done
0100 Australia August DEWR skilled vacancies (-1.7% m/m)
0500 Japan August small business confidence (41.1)
0800 Germany August Ifo business sentiment, expectations (90.4)
0800 Germany August Ifo, business climate (87.3)
0800 Germany August Ifo, current assessment (84.3)
1100 US MBA mortgage applications (5.6%)
1230 US July durable goods orders (-2.5%)
1230 US July durable goods orders, ex-transportation (1.1%)
1400 US July new home sales (384,000)
1400 US July new home sales (11.0% m/m
1600 France July total jobseekers
1600 US Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Lockhart speaks
2245 NZ July trade balance

Thursday, 27 August 2009
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)

N/A Eurozone August Ifo business climate survey
N/A Germany August consumer price index (0.0% m/m)
N/A Germany August consumer price index (-0.5% y/y)
N/A Germany August CPI, harmonized (-0.1% m/m)
N/A Germany August CPI, harmonized (-0.7% y/y)
0000 Australia June leading index (-0.1%)
0130 Australia Q2 private capital expenditure (-8.9%)
0610 Germany September GfK consumer confidence survey (3.5)
0800 Italy August PMI, retail (45.6)
0800 France August PMI, retail (46.0)
0800 Germany August PMI, retail (49.8)
0800 Eurozone August PMI, retail (47.3)
0800 Eurozone July M3 money supply (3.5% y/y)
0830 UK Q2 total business investment (-7.6% q/q)
0830 UK Q2 total business investment (-9.7% y/y)
1000 UK CBI quarterly distributive trades (-17)
1230 US Q2 gross domestic product, annualized (-1.0%0
1230 US Q2 personal consumption expenditure, core (2.0% q/q)
1230 US Q2 gross domestic product price index (0.2%)
1230 US Weekly initial jobless claims (576,000)
1230 US Continuing jobless claims (6.241 million)
2100 US Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President Bullard speaks
2245 NZ July building permits (-9.5% m/m)
2301 UK August GfK consumer confidence (-25)
2315 Japan August PMI, manufacturing (50.4)
2330 Japan July jobless rate (5.4%)
2330 Japan July household spending (0.2% y/y)
2330 Japan August Tokyo-area consumer price index (-1.8% y/y)
2330 Japan August Tokyo-area CPI, ex-food, energy (-1.1% y/y)
2330 Japan July national consumer price index (-1.8% y/y)
2330 Japan July national CPI, ex-food, energy (-0.7% y/y)

Friday, 28 August 2009
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)

0300 NZ July M3 money supply (2.7% y/y)
0830 UK Q2 gross domestic product (-0.8% q/q)
0830 UK Q2 gross domestic product (-5.6% y/y)
0900 Italy July producer price index
0900 Eurozone August economic confidence (76.0)
0900 Eurozone August business climate indicator (-2.71)
0900 Eurozone August consumer confidence (-23)
0900 Eurozone August industrial confidence (-30)
0900 Eurozone August services confidence (-18)
0930 CH August KOF leading indicator (-0.99)
1230 US July personal income (-1.3%)
1230 US July personal spending (0.4%)
1230 US July CPE deflator (-0.4% y/y)
1230 US July CPE, core (0.2% m/m)
1230 US July PCE, core (1.5% y/y)
1230 Canada Q2 current account (-C$ 9.1 billion)
1230 Canada July industrial product prices (0.7% m/m)
1230 Canada July raw materials price index (6.2% m/m)
1400 US August University of Michigan consumer sentiment (63.2)


DISCLAIMER: GCI’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. GCI assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

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Swiss franc strengthens, british pound moves lower, and yen appreciates

€
The euro moved lower vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.4220 level and was capped around the $1.4280 level. U.S. equity markets were pinched lower as traders continue to speculate the Chinese government may try to slow its industrial sector, probably to the detriment of global growth. Richmond Fed President Lacker hawkishly said the Fed may not need to purchase the entire US$ 1.25 trillion in mortgage-backed securities it has been authorized to purchase by the end of the year. Data released in the U.S. today saw second quarter gross domestic product decline an annualized 1.0%, unchanged from the previous estimate, while the second quarter GDP price index fell to 0.0% from 0.2%. Additionally, core personal consumption expenditures were unchanged at 2.0%, matching forecasts. Other data released today saw weekly initial jobless claims fall to 570,000 from a revised 580,000 while continuing jobless claims printed at 6.133 million, down from 6.252 million. This week’s U.S. economic data have added to the perception that the U.S. economy has likely bottomed out, though some bears are quick to note that the impact from the pending commercial real estate crisis has not been fully discounted by markets. The Federal Reserve is seeking a delay in the disclosure of the identity of companies that received funds from its emergency lending programs. In eurozone news, GfK reported German September sentiment improved to 3.7 from 3.4 in August. Also, Germany’s inflation rose unexpectedly improved to 0% in August on a harmonized basis after declining an annualized 0.7% in July. Other data released today saw loan growth to private sector borrowers in the eurozone decelerate significantly, off 0.4% m/m. Additionally, the ECB reported its annual M3 money supply indicator grew 0.3% last month. ECB policymakers this week have been quite cautious in their assessments of the economy, noting it is unlikely they’ll move to unwind their monetary stimuli anytime soon. ECB rate-setters will next convene on 3 September and are unlikely to change monetary policy at that time. Euro bids are cited around the US$ 1.3900 figure.


¥/ CNY
The yen appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the ¥93.35 level and was capped around the ¥94.30 level. The yen strengthened across the board as traders were loath to assume too much risk during a period of decreased market liquidity. Vice finance minister Tango reported G20 central bankers and finance ministers will discuss the global economy and regulation of the financial markets when officials convene in London next week. Ongoing concerns that China will curb excess growth in the industrial sector continue to result in yen weakness. China remains a major engine of global growth and a weakening in industrial activity could precipitate slower global growth, thereby decreasing demand for higher-yielding assets. The repatriation of overseas yen assets back to Japan is also benefiting the yen. On the political front, Democratic Party of Japan leader Yukio Hatoyama published an editorial that suggested Japan should work with other Asian countries to create a single regional currency “and aspire to move toward regional currency integration.” It is likely that Hatoyama will become the next prime minister on 30 August if his Democratic Party of Japan defeats the long-incumbent Liberal Democratic Party. There is growing speculation the Bank of Japan may extend its forecast for the end of deflation into early 2012 from early 2011, and this suggests the central bank will keep its ultra-easy monetary policy unchanged from quite some time. The Nikkei 225 stock index lost 1.56% to close at ¥10,473.97. U.S. dollar offers are cited around the ¥104.15 level. The euro moved lower vis-à-vis the yen as the single currency tested bids around the ¥132.90 level and was capped around the ¥134.45 level. The British pound moved lower vis-à-vis the yen as sterling tested bids around the ¥151.05 level while the Swiss franc moved lower vis-à-vis the yen and tested bids around the ¥87.30 level. In Chinese news, the U.S. dollar gained ground vis-à-vis the Chinese yuan as the greenback closed at CNY 6.8273 in the over-the-counter market, up from CNY 6.8266. Chinese Premier Wen this week said the markets need to avoid being “blindly optimistic” about the global economic recovery and added China must maintain its “moderately loose” monetary policy and “active” fiscal policy. PBoC has reported it will ensure “reasonable and ample” liquidity.
₤
The British pound moved lower vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested bids around the US$ 1.6155 level and was capped around the $ 1.6245 level. Cable reached its lowest level since 13 July. Bank of England Deputy Governor Bean reported it may take years to assess the efficacy of the central bank’s ₤175 billion asset purchasing program on account of “transmission lags.” Bean added the impact of the bond purchase program has been “moderately encouraging.” Cable offers are cited around the US$ 1.6355 level. The euro moved higher vis-à-vis the British pound as the single currency tested offers around the ₤0.8820 level and was supported around the ₤0.8770 level.
CHF
The Swiss franc appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the CHF 1.0660 level and was capped around the CHF 1.0705 level. UBS reported buying back assets from the Swiss National Bank is not an “immediate concern.” Swiss National Bank member Jordan this week reported it “isn’t time yet” to reverse its expansionary monetary policy, adding interest rates “will remain low.” He also verbally intervened against further franc strength, saying it will be prevented “resolutely.” U.S. dollar offers are cited around the CHF 1.0790 level. The euro moved higher vis-à-vis the Swiss franc as the single currency tested offers around the CHF 1.5240 level while the British pound moved lower vis-à-vis the Swiss franc as the single currency tested bids around the CHF 1.7255 level.

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Europe could be rolling out of a recession, learn to day trade

The euro rose, headed for its first two-month advance against the dollar since March 2008, on growing evidence Europe is emerging from its worst recession. The 16-nation currency gained for an eighth day versus the pound, its longest streak in four years, before a European report forecast to show business and consumer confidence rose to the highest level in 10 months.
The yen fell against all 16 major counterparts after Japanese government reports showed unemployment rose to a record and consumer prices slumped. Japan’s opposition party may win elections on Aug. 30, polls show, halting the ruling party’s half-century grip on power.
The euro rose to $1.4359 as of 6:30 a.m. in London from $1.4341 in New York yesterday, when it reached $1.4406, the highest level since Aug. 7. The currency has advanced 0.7 percent this month. It climbed to 134.56 yen from 134.14 yen, and strengthened to 88.25 British pence from 88.07 pence.
The yen fell to 93.71 per dollar from 93.52 yesterday. It weakened to 78.64 per Australian dollar from 78.48, and traded at 64.34 versus New Zealand's dollar from 64.28.

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Europe could be rolling out of a recession, learn to day trade

The euro rose, headed for its first two-month advance against the dollar since March 2008, on growing evidence Europe is emerging from its worst recession. The 16-nation currency gained for an eighth day versus the pound, its longest streak in four years, before a European report forecast to show business and consumer confidence rose to the highest level in 10 months.
The yen fell against all 16 major counterparts after Japanese government reports showed unemployment rose to a record and consumer prices slumped. Japan’s opposition party may win elections on Aug. 30, polls show, halting the ruling party’s half-century grip on power.
The euro rose to $1.4359 as of 6:30 a.m. in London from $1.4341 in New York yesterday, when it reached $1.4406, the highest level since Aug. 7. The currency has advanced 0.7 percent this month. It climbed to 134.56 yen from 134.14 yen, and strengthened to 88.25 British pence from 88.07 pence.
The yen fell to 93.71 per dollar from 93.52 yesterday. It weakened to 78.64 per Australian dollar from 78.48, and traded at 64.34 versus New Zealand's dollar from 64.28.

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diverging topside wedge, learn to trade S&P 500 emini futures

diverging topside wedge, learn to trade S&P 500 emini futures: "

http://www.moneymakeredge.com/blog showing the elliot wave and a diverging wedge for the resistance on the bear trend we are in. Break to new highs or retrace to lower levels.

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Yen is rising , Aussie dollar run turns learn to trade currency

The yen rose the most in a week against the euro and the dollar strengthened as renewed concern the U.S. financial crisis will linger sent Asian shares lower and revived demand for safer assets. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average declined 0.8 percent and the Shanghai Composite Index sank 4.1 percent. U.S. stocks yesterday erased gains after SunTrust, Georgia's biggest bank, said commercial real estate may falter through 2010.
Australia's dollar snapped a five-day advance against the greenback as crude oil, the nation's fourth-most valuable commodity export, declined and damped demand for higher-yielding securities.
The yen rose 0.7 percent, the most since Aug. 17, to 134.33 per euro as of 7:30 a.m. in London from 135.27 yesterday in New York. It climbed 0.6 percent to 94.00 per dollar from 94.56. The U.S. currency was at $1.4294 per euro from $1.4304, and advanced to $1.6396 versus the pound from $1.6417.
Australia's dollar slipped to 83.54 U.S. cents from 83.89 cents in New York yesterday, when it touched 84.29 cents, the most since Aug. 14 and near its highest level this year. Crude oil for October delivery dropped 1 percent to $73.64 a barrel.
The Nikkei 225 Stock Average declined 0.8 percent and the Shanghai Composite Index sank 4.1 percent. U.S. stocks yesterday erased gains after SunTrust, Georgia's biggest bank, said commercial real estate may falter through 2010.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, who led the biggest expansion of the central bank's power in its 95-year history to battle the worst economic slump since the Great Depression, will be nominated to a second term by President Barack Obama. Bernanke "has led the Fed through one of the worst financial crises that this nation and this world have ever faced," Obama said in remarks prepared for delivery today in Martha's Vineyard, Massachusetts, where Bernanke is to join him. Revived

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Yen is falling gold is stalling. Learn to trade forex, live trading room.

The yen weakened for a third day against the euro as improving economic data and central bank comments that the global recession is abating spurred investors to buy higher-yielding assets.
The euro traded near the strongest level in two weeks against the dollar before a report that economists said will show European industrial orders fell at a slower pace. Asian stocks extended a global rally after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said last week chances for near-term growth "appear good." The Australian dollar rose a fifth day, recovering from losses this month amid concern China will slow lending and trim its demand for resources.
The yen fell to 135.90 per euro as of 7:44 a.m. in London from 135.21 in New York on Aug. 21. It earlier declined to 136.09 per euro, the weakest since Aug. 14. The Japanese currency dropped to 94.95 per dollar from 94.38. The dollar traded at $1.4313 per euro from $1.4326.
Australia's currency strengthened 0.5 percent to 83.86 U.S. cents and advanced 1.1 percent to 79.63 yen.
Gold, little changed in Asian trading, may decline after the biggest rally in three weeks spurred investors to sell the precious metal. Gold for immediate delivery dropped as much as 0.3 percent before trading little changed at $953.95 an ounce at 2:22 p.m. in Singapore.

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Euro, Yen and US news for day trading forex

€
The euro moved higher vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.4275 level and was supported around the $1.4200 figure. European Central Bank member Bini Smaghi reiterated the central bank expects inflation to remain low over the coming year and will “do everything it takes to prevent it from rising.” He also indicatyed the ECB does not expect EMU-16 growth before the middle of 2010. Notably, EMU-16 GDP growth was -0.1% q/q, up from the record decline of -2.5% in the prior quarter. The euro moved higher partially on a reound in Chinese equity markets as the Shanghai Composite was up 4.5% today following recent flirtations with bear market territory. Other major news today focused on a warning from Germany’s finance ministry that the economic stabilization may not hold. It was reported last week that German GDP improved unexpectedly in the second quarter. In U.S. news, data released in the U.S. today saw the Philadelphia Fed’s manufacturing survey improve to 4.2 from -7.5 in July while July leading economic indicators were up 0.6%. Also, weekly initial jobless claims rose to 576,000 from a revised 561,000 and continuing jobless claims printed at 6.241 million, up from a revised 6.239 million. Euro bids are cited around the US$ 1.3900 figure.
¥/ CNY
The yen depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers around the ¥94.55 level and was supported around the ¥93.85 level. Bank of Japan Policy Board member Mizuno warned the domestic economic recovery could decelerate in the autumn, adding a sustained economic recovery would require “support from governments and central banks.” He said the BoJ should prepare Japan for an extended bout with deflation, warning that “price declines will ease only at a moderate pace” in the year starting April 2011. He also warned the central banks lacks the tools needed to “prop up prices and stimulate economic growth in the short term.” The yen’s direction is uncertain given the real possibility that economic growth may slow further. On the political front, a Democratic Party of Japan victory at the general election on 30 August could result in upward pressure on the yen and possibly more supply of Japanese government bonds. The Nikkei 225 stock index climbed 1.76% to close at ¥10,383.41. U.S. dollar offers are cited around the ¥104.15 level. The euro moved higher vis-à-vis the yen as the single currency tested offers around the ¥134.60 level and was supported around the ¥133.40 level. The British pound moved higher vis-à-vis the yen as sterling tested offers around the ¥156.70 level while the Swiss franc moved higher vis-à-vis the yen and tested offers around the ¥88.65 level. In Chinese news, the U.S. dollar lost ground vis-à-vis the Chinese yuan as the greenback closed at CNY 6.8273 in the over-the-counter market, down from CNY 6.8320.


Technical Outlook at 1230 GMT (EDT + 0400)

(Bid Price) (Today’s Intraday Range)

EUR/ USD 1.4254 1.4265, 1.4200
USD/ JPY 94.09 94.55, 93.85
GBP/ USD 1.6505 1.6604, 1.6450
USD/ CHF 1.0628 1.0684, 1.0621
AUD/USD 0.8312 0.8332, 0.8268
USD/CAD 1.0882 1.0994, 1.0862
NZD/USD 0.6760 0.6773, 0.6725
EUR/ JPY 134.11 134.60, 133.39
EUR/ GBP 0.8633 0.8642, 0.8569
GBP/ JPY 155.32 156.71, 154.52
CHF/ JPY 88.49 88.67, 87.94

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In another sign the worst of the U.S. recession is over, a gauge of current conditions showed the economy steadied last month. The Conference Board's coincident index was unchanged in July after falling in 17 of the 19 months since the contraction started in December 2007, figures from the New York-based private research group showed yesterday. The more closely watched gauge of leading indicators, which shows the outlook for the next three to six months, climbed for a fourth month.
The yen rose, heading for a second weekly gain against the euro, as China was said to be planning to tighten capital requirements for banks, accelerating losses in stocks and boosting demand for Japan's currency as a refuge. Higher-yielding currencies slid versus the yen and the dollar after people familiar with the matter said the China Banking Regulatory Commission sent a draft of the rule changes to banks on Aug. 19. The yen climbed versus all of its 16 major counterparts on concern toxic securities will continue to hurt U.S. banks, extending the global financial crisis.
The yen strengthened to 93.72 per dollar as of 7:27 a.m. in London from 94.19 in New York yesterday, after earlier reaching 93.48, the highest level since July 22. It has risen 1.3 percent in the past five days, adding to last week's 2.8 percent gain. Japan's currency climbed to 133.32 per euro from 134.26.
The dollar advanced to $1.4235 per euro from $1.4254 yesterday. It has weakened 0.2 percent versus the euro in the past five sessions, following a 0.1 percent decline last week.
The Australian dollar fell to 77.39 yen from 78.31 yen and dropped to 82.56 U.S. cents from 83.13 cents. The New Zealand dollar slid to 63.17 yen from 63.78, and declined to 67.39 U.S. cents from 67.72.

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Euro strengthened. learn to trade currencies and forex.

The euro strengthened for a third day against the dollar after a German report showed Europe's largest economy unexpectedly expanded in the second quarter, adding to signs the global recession is abating. Germany's Federal Statistics Office said today gross domestic product expanded a seasonally adjusted 0.3 percent from the previous three months, when it slumped a record 3.5 percent.
Europe's currency also gained for a second day versus the yen before a European report that economists said will show the contraction in the 16-nation region slowed last quarter. The dollar fell against 14 of the 16 major currencies after the Federal Reserve said it will keep interest rates low for an "extended period," diminishing the appeal of U.S. assets. The Fed also said in its statement following its two-day meeting yesterday that the economy is "leveling out." and indicated it will wind down purchases of Treasuries that had been slated to end in September. The central bank has left its target rate for overnight lending between zero and 0.25 percent since December.
The euro strengthened to $1.4268 as of 7:38 a.m. in London from $1.4188 yesterday in New York. It advanced to $1.4447 on Aug. 5, the highest level since Dec. 18. Europe’s currency climbed to 137.24 yen from 136.32 yen. The yen traded at 96.15 per dollar from 96.06.

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Yen strengthens on Chinese equities slipping, learn to trade currency

The yen rose for a third day against the euro and the dollar as Asian stocks extended a global slide in equities, increasing demand for the relative safety of Japan's currency.
The yen also gained versus all of its 16 major counterparts after China's Commerce Ministry said efforts to boost the economy cannot fully offset slumping export demand.
The dollar weakened against the yen on speculation the Federal Reserve will today affirm its commitment to keeping interest rates low, reducing the appeal of U.S. bonds.
The yen advanced to 134.82 per euro as of 7:48 a.m. in London from 135.82 in New York yesterday, after earlier rising to 134.79, the highest level since Aug. 3. Japan's currency climbed to 95.46 per dollar from 95.99. The dollar traded at $1.4125 per euro from $1.4149.
Gold advanced after U.S. stocks fell and the dollar depreciated on concern that bank earnings will not improve in the second half. Bullion snapped a five-day decline, the longest run of losses in five months, as the Dollar Index also fell on speculation the Federal Reserve will affirm its commitment to keeping interest rates low. Gold for immediate delivery rose as much as 0.3 percent to $948.45 an ounce before trading at $946.70 at 12:58 p.m. in Singapore. The metal is up 7.3 percent this year.

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This weeks news for Forex trading Aug 12-14

Wednesday, 12 August 2009
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)

0100 Australia August Westpac consumer confidence (9.3%)
0130 Australia Q2 wage cost index (0.8% q/q)
0130 Australia Q2 wage cost index (4.2% y/y)
0430 Japan June industrial production
0430 Japan June capacity utilization (8.0% m/m)
0500 Japan Bank of Japan monthly report
0645 France July consumer price index (0.1% m/m)
0645 France July consumer price index (-0.5% y/y)
0645 France July CPI, harmonized (0.1% m/m)
0645 France July CPI, harmonized (-0.6% y/y)
0645 France June current account (-€2.2 billion)
0800 Italy July consumer price index
0830 UK July jobless claims change (23,800)
0830 UK July claimant count rate (4.8%)
0830 UK June ILO unemployment rate (7.6%)
0830 UK June average earnings, bonus (2.3%)
0900 Eurozone June industrial production (0.5% m/m)
0900 Eurozone June industrial production (-17.0% y/y)
0930 UK Bank of England quarterly inflation report
1100 US MBA mortgage applications
1230 US June trade balance (-US$ 26.0 billion)
1230 Canada June international merchandise trade
1230 Canada June new housing price index (-0.1% m/m)
1815 US Federal Open Market Committee interest rate decision

Thursday, 13 August 2009
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)

N/A Japan July Tokyo-area department store sales (-11.4% y/y)
N/A Japan July nationwide department store sales (-8.8% y/y)
0100 Australia August consumer inflation expectations (3.2%)
0130 Australia Average weekly wages
0400 Japan July Tokyo-area condominium sales (-23.0% y/y)
0600 Germany Q2 gross domestic product (-6.7% y/y)
0645 France Q2 gross domestic product (-1.2% q/q)
0645 France Q2 gross domestic product (-3.2% y/y)
0715 CH July producer and import prices (0.0% m/m)
0715 CH July producer and import prices (-5.6% y/y)
0800 Eurozone European Central Bank monthly report
0900 Eurozone Q2 gross domestic product (-2.5% q/q)
0900 Eurozone Q2 gross domestic product (-4.9% y/y)
1230 US Continuing jobless claims (6.310 million)
1230 US Weekly initial jobless claims (550,000)
1230 US July import price index (3.2% m/m)
1230 US July import price index (-17.4% y/y)
1230 US July retail sales (0.6%)
1230 US July retail sales, ex-autos (0.3%)
1230 US June business inventories (-1.0%)
2245 NZ Q2 retail sales, ex-inflation (-2.9% q/q)
2245 NZ June retail sales, ex-autos (1.6% m/m)
2245 NZ June retail sales (0.8% m/m)
2330 Australia Reserve Bank of Australia Governor testifies
2350 Japan June tertiary industry index (-0.1% m/m)
2350 Japan Bank of Japan Policy Board meeting minutes
2350 Japan July M3 money supply (1.7% y/y)

Friday, 14 August 2009
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)

0645 France Q2 wages (0.8% q/q)
0900 Eurozone July consumer price index (0.2% m/m)
0900 Eurozone July consumer price index (-0.1% y/y)
0900 Eurozone July consumer price index, core (1.4% y/y)
1230 US July consumer price index, ex-food and energy (0.2% m/m)
1230 US July consumer price index, ex-food and energy (1.7% y/y)
1230 US July consumer price index (0.7% m/m)
1230 US July consumer price index (-1.4% y/y)
1315 US July capacity utilization (68.0%)
1315 US July industrial production (-0.4%)
1400 US University of Michigan consumer sentiment (66)

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Currency support and resistance Aug 12

Support Resistance Support Resistance

EUR/ USD USD/ JPY


L1. 1.3780 1.4295 90.05 98.85
L2. 1.3605 1.4630 88.60 101.65
L3. 1.3400 1.5105 87.10 105.05

GBP/ USD USD/ CHF

L1. 1.5845 1.6495 1.0510 1.1165
L2. 1.5690 1.6740 1.0275 1.1270
L3. 1.5440 1.6830 0.9750 1.1555

AUD/ USD USD/ CAD

L1. 0.7715 0.8250 1.1340 1.1920
L2. 0.7440 0.8555 1.1130 1.2190
L3. 0.7165 0.9050 1.0725 1.2520


NZD/ USD EUR/ JPY

L1. 0.6190 0.6665 125.65 134.50
L2. 0.6020 0.6945 121.70 139.80
L3. 0.5655 0.7760 118.50 141.50

EUR/ GBP EUR/ CHF

L1. 0.8320 0.8770 1.4905 1.5380
L2. 0.7870 0.9080 1.4670 1.5580
L3. 0.7590 0.9355 1.4420 1.5880

GBP/ JPY CHF/ JPY

L1. 146.10 157.75 81.55 93.55
L2. 142.05 160.30 79.20 97.90
L3. 135.70 167.30 75.40 105.05

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Major currencies, learn to trade forex at live trading room Aug 12

€
The euro gained marginal ground vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.4185 level and was supported around the $1.4110 level. Most traders believe the Federal Open Market Committee will keep interest rates unchanged when its policy decision is announced tomorrow. Many economists believe the FOMC will keep interest rates unchanged through at least 2010 on account of the global credit crisis. Traders are curious to see if the Fed changes any significant verbiage in its statement and gives any further clues about unwinding its massive monetary stimuli. The Fed’s balance sheet is currently right around the US$ 2 trillion level and has been declining over the past few weeks, an indication it is gradually reducing some of its quantitative easing programs. One program that traders are paying close attention to is the Fed’s purchase of U.S. Treasury securities. It is expected the Fed will allow its current US$ 300 billion purchase program to expire when that amount is reached, likely in September. There is speculation the Fed will be actively discussing pending problems in the U.S. commercial real estate market. There is an expectation the sector could worsen significantly early next year. Fed Chairman Bernanke recently noted the Fed is “paying very close attention” to the sector and highlighted “increased vacancy, declining rents, and falling prices.” Data released in the U.S. today saw Q2 non-farm productivity improve 6.4% from a downwardly revised Q1 reading of 0.3%. While these data mean U.S. workers are becoming more productive, they also signify higher productivity is coincident with considerably higher unemployment. Q2 labour costs were off 5.8%, down from a revised -2.7% in Q1, and June wholesale inventories were off 1.7%, down from a revised -1.2% in May. In eurozone news, the German July wholesale price index was off 0.5% m/m and 10.6% y/y while the July consumer price index was unchanged m/m and off 0.5% y/y. Euro bids are cited around the US$ 1.3900 figure.


¥/ CNY
The yen appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the ¥95.75 level and was capped around the ¥97.15 level. The yen extended recent gains across the board with U.S. equities under pressure and risk appetite lower globally, favouring the yen. As expected, Bank of Japan’s Policy Board voted unanimously to keep the overnight call rate target unchanged at 0.10% and kept its economic assessment unchanged. BoJ Governor Shirakawa pessimistically noted “Even if we have a recovery, I don’t think its strength will be impressive. I can’t be confident about the strength of final demand after inventory adjustments and policy measures run their course.” The central bank reiterated it remains concerned about “downside risks to economic activity and prices” and merely noted the economy has “stopped worsening.” Data to be released next week may show Japan’s economy expanded around 4.0% in the three months that ended 30 June. Deflationary pressures have returned to the economy. Consumer prices excluding fresh food fall a record 1.7% in June and this may pressure policymakers into keeping rates low through 2011. Data released in Japan overnight saw the government’s consumer sentiment index improve to 39.4 from 37.6 in June, its highest level since November 2007 and the seventh consecutive monthly improvement. The Nikkei 225 stock index climbed 0.58% to close at ¥10,585.46. U.S. dollar offers are cited around the ¥104.15 level. The euro moved lower vis-à-vis the yen as the single currency tested bids around the ¥135.25 level and was capped around the ¥137.40 level. The British pound moved lower vis-à-vis the yen as sterling tested bids around the ¥157.80 level while the Swiss franc moved lower vis-à-vis the yen and tested bids around the ¥88.40 level. In Chinese news, the U.S. dollar gained ground vis-à-vis the Chinese yuan as the greenback closed at CNY 6.8355 in the over-the-counter market, up from CNY 6.8313. Data released in China overnight saw July exports decline a staggering 23% y/y while July factory output was up a weaker-than-expected 10.8%. Also, July CPI was off 1.8% y/y and July PPI was off 8.2% y/y with July retail sales up 15.2% y/y.
₤
The British pound lost minor ground vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested bids around the US$ 1.6430 level and was capped around the $1.6520 level. Traders await the release of Bank of England’s quarterly inflation report tomorrow. Data released in the U.K. today saw the June DCLG house price index off 10.7% while the June goods trade deficit increased to ₤6.5 billion from ₤6.2 billion. Other news out of the U.K. today suggests the BoE earned more than a 10% return on its ₤918 million portfolio of corporate bonds. Cable bids are cited around the US$ 1.6215 level. The euro moved higher vis-à-vis the British pound as the single currency tested offers around the ₤0.8615 level and was supported around the ₤0.8560 level.

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