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The euro moved higher vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.4275 level and was supported around the $1.4200 figure. European Central Bank member Bini Smaghi reiterated the central bank expects inflation to remain low over the coming year and will “do everything it takes to prevent it from rising.” He also indicatyed the ECB does not expect EMU-16 growth before the middle of 2010. Notably, EMU-16 GDP growth was -0.1% q/q, up from the record decline of -2.5% in the prior quarter. The euro moved higher partially on a reound in Chinese equity markets as the Shanghai Composite was up 4.5% today following recent flirtations with bear market territory. Other major news today focused on a warning from Germany’s finance ministry that the economic stabilization may not hold. It was reported last week that German GDP improved unexpectedly in the second quarter. In U.S. news, data released in the U.S. today saw the Philadelphia Fed’s manufacturing survey improve to 4.2 from -7.5 in July while July leading economic indicators were up 0.6%. Also, weekly initial jobless claims rose to 576,000 from a revised 561,000 and continuing jobless claims printed at 6.241 million, up from a revised 6.239 million. Euro bids are cited around the US$ 1.3900 figure.
¥/ CNY
The yen depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers around the ¥94.55 level and was supported around the ¥93.85 level. Bank of Japan Policy Board member Mizuno warned the domestic economic recovery could decelerate in the autumn, adding a sustained economic recovery would require “support from governments and central banks.” He said the BoJ should prepare Japan for an extended bout with deflation, warning that “price declines will ease only at a moderate pace” in the year starting April 2011. He also warned the central banks lacks the tools needed to “prop up prices and stimulate economic growth in the short term.” The yen’s direction is uncertain given the real possibility that economic growth may slow further. On the political front, a Democratic Party of Japan victory at the general election on 30 August could result in upward pressure on the yen and possibly more supply of Japanese government bonds. The Nikkei 225 stock index climbed 1.76% to close at ¥10,383.41. U.S. dollar offers are cited around the ¥104.15 level. The euro moved higher vis-à-vis the yen as the single currency tested offers around the ¥134.60 level and was supported around the ¥133.40 level. The British pound moved higher vis-à-vis the yen as sterling tested offers around the ¥156.70 level while the Swiss franc moved higher vis-à-vis the yen and tested offers around the ¥88.65 level. In Chinese news, the U.S. dollar lost ground vis-à-vis the Chinese yuan as the greenback closed at CNY 6.8273 in the over-the-counter market, down from CNY 6.8320.
Technical Outlook at 1230 GMT (EDT + 0400)
(Bid Price) (Today’s Intraday Range)
EUR/ USD 1.4254 1.4265, 1.4200
USD/ JPY 94.09 94.55, 93.85
GBP/ USD 1.6505 1.6604, 1.6450
USD/ CHF 1.0628 1.0684, 1.0621
AUD/USD 0.8312 0.8332, 0.8268
USD/CAD 1.0882 1.0994, 1.0862
NZD/USD 0.6760 0.6773, 0.6725
EUR/ JPY 134.11 134.60, 133.39
EUR/ GBP 0.8633 0.8642, 0.8569
GBP/ JPY 155.32 156.71, 154.52
CHF/ JPY 88.49 88.67, 87.94
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